How Notre Dame football can turn season around by beating USC
The Notre Dame-Southern Cal rivalry has been one of runs. Kind of like a basketball game, when one team gets hot it’s hard to stop the momentum.
Notre Dame has been on the better end of that historically. There have been five instances in which the Fighting Irish have won four or more games in a row. USC has had only two such streaks.
But right now, the Trojans have the last laugh in the grudge match. And they’ve got a chance to win back-to-back games against Notre Dame for the first time since 2008-09. Considering they have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner on their side and he’s playing even better than he did last year, they should be favored to do so.
Here’s the thing, though; this USC team isn’t invincible like the one that beat Notre Dame eight consecutive times from 2002-09. Even with quarterback Caleb Williams playing as well as any college quarterback ever has, and even after the Irish’s worst loss of the Marcus Freeman era occurring just a few days ago, Notre Dame can notch what would be the biggest win of his tenure.
It may feel like a long shot considering each team’s current circrumstances, but it’s entirely doable.
Yes, USC head coach Lincoln Riley has completely revamped the roster and turned the program around from where it was at 4-8 just two seasons ago. The transfer portal has been his best friend. Riley groomed back-to-back Heisman Trophy winners at Oklahoma in Baker Mayfield (2017) and Kyler Murray (2018). Williams might win the coveted award back-to-back on his own. Taking Williams with him from Norman to Los Angeles is one of the best things Riley has ever done as a coach, and he’s done quite a lot.
The USC defense could spoil one of the best careers for a collegiate signal-caller ever, though. That unit ruined the 2022 season for Williams; the Trojans lost three games and gave up at least 40 points in all three of them. Williams completed 66.7 percent of his passes for an average of 402 yards per game with 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in games he went 0-3 in last year.
Utah, twice, and Tulane proved that even this version of USC — the one with the most unstoppable quarterback of his time and maybe ever — can be beaten. That’s because the USC defense has a hard time stopping anybody or anything itself.
The Trojans allowed 28 points to San Jose State and 28 more to Arizona State early this season. In Week 5, Colorado exploded for 41 points on the porous USC defense seven days after nearly getting shut out by Oregon. The Buffaloes didn’t score until there was 2:51 left in that game against the Ducks, and they were losing 42-0 at the time. Arizona just matched Colorado’s 41 points last week.
Somehow, although his team is ranked No. 112 in total defense, Riley is more confident in his 2023 bunch even though the struggles resemble those of the 2022 squad that came up short three times.
“When something doesn’t go our way, it doesn’t look like last year,” Riley said after a 48-41 win over Colorado. “Not to the trained eye. Not to a coach.”
Notre Dame doesn’t want it to look like last year anyway. USC beat the Irish 38-27. Williams had his Heisman moment(s). The Trojans twice led by 17 points in the second half. An 11-point loss to the eventual Heisman winner looks OK on paper, but everyone knew when it was 24-7 midway through the third quarter Notre Dame was not going to win the football game.
That was partly because that version of the Irish was quarterbacked by a backup turned starter in Drew Pyne. This version of the Irish is led by a QB who once had his name right there with that of Williams in a variety of different categories earlier this season. Tough games against then-No. 6 Ohio State and then-No. 17 Duke took Sam Hartman’s name out of the top tier of Heisman candidates. He’s no longer anywhere near the map after throwing three interceptions in the loss to Louisville.
A big showing against Williams and company could remind viewers why he was once in the conversation, though. With a quarterback like Hartman, who had 14 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions through Week 5, Notre Dame could potentially go toe-to-toe with USC in a way the Irish couldn’t last November.
“Sammy is one of the best in the business,” Notre Dame junior running back Audric Estimé said. “When the pressure is on, he’s at his best.”
The pressure of Notre Dame-USC can get to even the best of quarterbacks. Brady Quinn, for instance, went 0-4 against the Trojans in his otherwise illustrious career. Yes, a feeble Irish defense contributed to Quinn’s demise in those years. The powerhouse that USC was at the time averaged 41 points per game in the quartet of victories over Quinn. But Quinn’s numbers didn’t do anything to threaten the Trojans’ dynasty; he completed 49.7 percent of his passes for 202.8 yards per game with 6 touchdown tosses and 1 interception. In the three games USC quarterback Matt Leinart played against Quinn, he completed 67.0 percent of his passes for 350.7 yards per game with 9 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions.
That’s the kind of disparity Hartman needs to avoid with Williams. For what it’s worth, Pyne actually kept up with Williams in the numbers department last year. He completed 23 of 26 passes for 318 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Williams connected on 18 of 22 throws for 232 yards with 1 score and no picks. He also added 3 rushing touchdowns, though, and those were the difference. He made plays Pyne simply could not, and he also didn’t turn the ball over.
Hartman is a playmaker. And at Notre Dame, prior to the Louisville game, he was protecting the ball better than ever in his six-year college career.
Each team’s respective running games could be the great equalizer.
Through Week 5, Notre Dame had two running backs averaging at least 7.0 yards per carry in Estimé and freshman Jeremiyah Love. USC had three tailbacks over 7.0 yards per rush through Week 5 with MarShawn Lloyd, Austin Jones and Quinten Joyner.
Notre Dame only averaged 3.5 yards per carry on a Trojans defense that ranked No. 117 in the FBS in yards allowed per attempt at 4.98 in 2022. Through Week 5 in 2023, the Trojans were still giving up more than 4.0 yards per carry this season. That’s a number Notre Dame just has to get to in this game. It’ll make life easier on Hartman. It’ll set the tone for the game in general.
So much is made of USC being all glitz and no grit. The national narrative is the Trojans are flashy, yes, and have a potent offense, yes, but when they get punched in the mouth, they can’t respond. They also seem to let teams that shouldn’t have a fighter’s chance punch above their weight class. Colorado had no business making it a seven-point game, but the Buffs did so anyway.
Notre Dame is on another level than Colorado. And the Irish are at home. Yes, Williams is a machine. He’s scary for anybody to go against. But if Notre Dame doesn’t give Williams at least a scare as well then it would be a disappointing result for the home team. Notre Dame can’t criticize USC’s deficiencies and then not exploit them. Hypocrisy isn’t the end goal.
This is a series built on dominant stretches and long winning streaks. But this year has the makings of the first flip-flop in who emerges victorious since 2016-17. The ball is in Notre Dame’s court.
Facts & Figures: USC at Notre Dame
Date: Oct. 14, 2023
Site: Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Television/streaming: NBC/Peacock
Radio: This game can be heard on Notre Dame IMG affiliates.
Series facts: Notre Dame is 50-38-5 all-time against USC. The Irish most recently beat the Trojans 31-16 in South Bend on Oct. 23, 2021. USC won the last meeting 38-27 in Los Angeles on Nov. 26, 2022.
Head coaches: USC — Lincoln Riley (17-3, second season); Marcus Freeman (14-7, second season).
Noting USC: Through Week 5, the Trojans had the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation at 53.6 points per game and No. 3 total offense nationally at 555.0 yards per game … USC quarterback Caleb Williams started the season with an incredible 21:1 touchdown to interception ratio … Williams had 9 more passing touchdowns in his first five games this season than he had in his 2022 Heisman Trophy campaign … Through Week 5, Williams led the nation in passing efficiency, passing touchdowns, points responsible for per game and yards per attempt … USC has one of the worst red zone defenses in the country, allowing opponents to score points on 91.67 percent of their red zone trips through five games; that ranked No. 113 in the FBS at the time … USC forced 28 turnovers in 14 games in 2022, but the Trojans only came away with 7 takeaways through the first five games of 2023 … If there is one thing the USC defense does well, it’s get to the quarterback; the Trojans ranked tied for sixth in the country with 19 sacks through Week 5.
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