Final Lines: Can LSU-Missouri exceed high-scoring expectations?
Welcome back to Final Lines, a weekly breakdown of the betting angles of every LSU game. Last year, we went 7-5 and this year we dropped to 2-3 after LSU was unable to cover -2.5 despite being up nine in the fourth quarter. Just like LSU, it’s time to get back on track!
This week, LSU faces Missouri on the road in a matchup between two high-level offenses with several fun and dynamic playmakers. It’s a game with massive implications for both teams and should create a fascinating matchup for the 11 a.m. kickoff.
Let’s get into our betting preview for this game and discuss my pick of the week.
Spread: LSU -5.5 / Missouri +5.5
LSU enters this game desperate, but Missouri is the undefeated home team that enters the game as an underdog. Can LSU prove itself against a capable opponent? If we use Florida State, Arkansas, and Ole Miss as the three good teams they’ve played this year, the Tigers don’t have much of a leg to stand on.
Offensively, we know what both sides bring to this game, but a point that hasn’t been talked about much this week is the fact neither offense turns the ball over. Daniels and Cook are two quarterbacks who don’t throw interceptions and do a great job of getting the ball to their playmakers. I don’t see LSU blowing the doors off of this Missouri team because I can’t see the defense making sequential stops or forcing turnovers. Most models have Missouri covering this as well, but the models are seemingly a step behind how drastic things are for LSU on both sides of the ball. I like LSU to win, but covering is a tall task.
SP+: Missouri 30-29, Sportsline Model: LSU 32-27, CFBGraphs: LSU 31-29.7
Total: Over/Under 64
LSU’s offense is top 20 in essentially every advanced statistic. No. 5 in Havoc, No. 3 in quality drives, No. 3 in Line yards, No. 4 in rush success, the only question mark is efficiency in the redzone and leaving with touchdowns. If Jayden Daniels isn’t connecting on the big play touchdowns like he has over the last three games, can this team be efficient inside the redzone or will it be forced to settle for field goals? That’s the only question mark for Brian Kelly’s offense entering this week.
On the other side, Missouri has been more of a boom or bust offense, with a far less efficient run game and worse offensive line play, yet still ranking 14th in pass success and featuring one of the best receivers in the country in Luther Burden who can score from anywhere on the field.
LSU’s defense is hoping to be more impactful at the line of scrimmage, which will ultimately decide if there’s any hope for the rest of this unit and, therefore, any hope in the under.
Props
Luther Burden’s receiving yards total is at 107.5, an incredibly high number that still feels too low with how much he’s used in this offense and how poor LSU has been both in coverage and in tackling. I like the over for Burden.
Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas are similar cases, with props at 99.5 and 82.5, but I can’t take the over on them. I think a big difference is LSU is able to run the ball better than Missouri and could be less reliant on those two than in prior games, especially if they get a lead early on. Those two have also had huge chunk plays which will have to continue to hit the over.
Jayden Daniels has been running the ball extremely well this year and doesn’t look like he’s going to stop, so I would take the over 62.5 rushing yards for him as the offensive line should continue to win up front and allow him to pick his spots, not take sacks, and get upfield.
I don’t have a feel for the inflated passing yard numbers for Cook or Daniels. Obviously, we all expect it to be a shootout, so the overs are in play
Don’t have an official props play for this one. The numbers are just inflated, which makes sense, but makes it challenging.
Shea’s play: Missouri Team Total – Over 28.5 points (-110)
“Missouri put up 30 on Kansas State and 34 on Memphis in home games, then went on the road and put up 38 points on Vanderbilt. LSU’s issues on defense are well-documented, and the Tigers gave up 31 points to Arkansas and 55 points to Ole Miss. Take out Grambling State, and LSU’s defense has allowed an average of 36 points per game in four matchups with Power 5 teams. My game prediction was LSU 38, Missouri 31, but I won’t be surprised at all if a shootout gets into the 40s.” – Shea Dixon
Pick of the week: Over 63.5
I like Shea’s play, but I also think LSU’s team total of 34.5 is too low as well. In a game where there will be explosive plays and plenty of passes, there’s no reason for the contest to be open for both sides.
We’ve dove into the numbers and styles of these two teams and the only way the under hits is through inefficiency in the red zone or if one team gets a significant lead and sits on the ball. If the game is tight, as we expect it to be, I can see LSU comfortably hitting their over and therefore getting this thing over 64. 38-28, 35-31, 42-24, all these cash the over for the game and that’s where I’m most comfortable in this one.
The post Final Lines: Can LSU-Missouri exceed high-scoring expectations? appeared first on On3.
