CBS Sports projects 12-team College Football Playoff field ahead of Week 6

Week 6 of the college football season means it’s almost the halfway point. With so much parity this year, it’s worth wondering what a 12-team College Football Playoff — which doesn’t arrive until next season — would look like.

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm updated his projections ahead of Week 6, and while the top four didn’t change, a new Group of 5 program jump into the mix. Of course, the G5 will have an easier path to the CFP under the new format, which currently has the six highest-ranked conference champions in the field along with six at-large teams.

While there’s a chance that plan could change, CFP executive director Bill Hancock said a decision wasn’t made during the recent meetings. There’s still plenty to figure out, especially the future of the Pac-12 and where the league fits into the FBS picture.

No. 1 Georgia | Bye

John David Mercer | USA TODAY Sports

Georgia fought off a scare at Jordan-Hare Stadium against Auburn last week, sneaking out with a 17-10 victory. The Bulldogs remain atop the AP Top 25 and are the likely No. 1 seed in the early CFP projections.

Brock Bowers played a critical role in that victory over Auburn with a monster fourth quarter to help UGA avoid the upset and stay unbeaten. His performance, along with that of Carson Beck, will be instrumental going forward if the Bulldogs want to three-peat.

No. 2 Michigan | Bye

Michigan left no room for doubt last week against Nebraska in a 45-7 trouncing in Lincoln. J.J. McCarthy didn’t need to play the whole game, either, as the Wolverines’ offense continues to look strong as Big Ten play heats up.

Michigan’s schedule has been favorable so far, and some big opponents — including Penn State and Ohio State — could make things interesting. Still, the Wolverines look like a CFP contender and could make a strong case for a lock under the 12-team College Football Playoff.

No. 3 Florida State | Bye

Alicia Devine | Tallahassee Democrat | USA TODAY NETWORK

Florida State was off last week for the bye, but the Seminoles have looked like the team to beat in the ACC so far. Of course, they went to overtime with Clemson two weeks ago, but managed to get the victory to improve to 4-0.

It’ll be interesting to see what adjustments Mike Norvell’s group made during the bye to help build a CFP resume. Virginia Tech awaits this week as the push to the conference championship begins.

No. 4 Texas | Bye

Texas has a marquee victory over Alabama on its resume this year, but a big test awaits this week. It’s Red River week as the Longhorns take on Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl in a battle of unbeaten teams — with College Football Playoff implications, as well.

Texas has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and has NFL Draft experts talking. The Longhorns could make a compelling case for the CFP at the moment, and they could further add to their argument with a victory on Saturday in Dallas.

No. 12 Fresno State at No. 5 Ohio State | Winner plays Texas

(Joseph Scheller | Columbus Dispatch | USA TODAY NETWORK)

Tulane looked like the most likely G5 team to chase a bid in a 12-team College Football Playoff projection, but it now appears Fresno State has taken that mantle, according to CBS Sports. The Bulldogs are 5-0 this year with A5 victories over Purdue and Arizona State to come in at No. 24 in the AP poll.

In CBS Sports’ projections, Fresno State would square off against Ohio State, which features a load of playmakers on both sides of the ball. The headliner is receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., widely viewed as a top-five NFL Draft pick as the Buckeyes try to get through a crowded Big Ten East and return to the CFP.

No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 USC | Winner plays Florida State

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Nick Saban and Lincoln Riley previously squared off in the CFP in 2018 when Alabama defeated Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. According to CBS Sports’ 12-team College Football Playoff projection, they’d go up against each other again with the Crimson Tide facing USC.

The Trojans are led by reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams, who’s the favorite to win the award again as he leads the high-powered offense into this week’s matchup against Arizona. As for the Crimson Tide, they appear to be back on track after an up-and-down start to the year with Jalen Milroe cemented as the quarterback into Saturday’s game vs. Texas A&M.

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Penn State | Winner plays Michigan

Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Penn State remains one of the most intriguing teams in the country, especially after struggling in the first half last week against Northwestern. But the Nittany Lions battled back behind a balanced rushing attack and impressive play from Drew Allar to get the 41-13 victory and remain undefeated.

Notre Dame has also had an impressive start to the year despite a loss to Ohio State at the literal final second two weeks ago. Sam Hartman engineered a monster, 96-yard drive to help the Fighting Irish defeat Duke in the final minute and get to 5-1. While the four-team CFP would be tough for Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish would be in the mix under a 12-team model.

No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Washington | Winner plays Georgia

Nick King | Lansing State Journal | USA TODAY NETWORK

This projection didn’t change from CBS Sports’ projection last week, which also featured Oregon and Washington facing off in the 8-9 game. Both teams are in the middle of the talented Pac-12 in the conference’s swan song and are on a collision course for a showdown next week after their bye weeks.

Oregon and Washington both have Heisman Trophy contenders. Michael Penix Jr. was the Heisman favorite entering Week 5, but saw his odds drop during the off week as fell to second behind Williams. Bo Nix has also emerged as one of the nation’s premier quarterbacks, and his 80.4% completion percentage leads the nation.

Of course, the top four teams only make the College Football Playoff this year, but there’s plenty of parity in the game this year — the last before a massive wave of change. The 12-team format is still more than a year away, which is when even more teams will be able to find a path to the national championship.

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