Keys to the game: Which defense steps up in LSU vs. Missouri
LSU faces Missouri on Saturday at 11 a.m. in Columbia, Missouri in a game with substantial implications for both sides.
For LSU, it’s simple: Avoid going 3-3 for the third time in four years, and avoid dropping to 2-2 in conference play, all but eliminating the Tigers from the SEC West race. Missouri will be approaching this game with equal urgency, playing at home with an undefeated record.
Here are my three keys to the game and what will ultimately decide this game.
Can LSU establish the run?
Logan Diggs Courtesy LSU
Missouri 19th run defense EPA and has only allowed 2.53 yards per carry and one rush touchdown all year. On the other hand, LSU has found a balance with Jayden Daniels and Logan Diggs running the ball this year and ranks No. 3 in rushing EPA.
Diggs is reeling off 6.2 yards per carry, while Daniels has a sack-adjusted yards per carry of 7.5. The combination of Daniels and Diggs gives the Tigers versatility in the run game that no one’s been able to stop to this point, but Missouri is one of the more stifling run defenses LSU will face. I’m interested to see if LSU’s RPO game is able to keep Missouri off balance throughout the contest.
The Tigers’ offense has been on such a roll, it’s hard to imagine LSU slowing down this week on the ground with the way the offensive line has played. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock is also clearly comfortable with the personnel he has to work with this year.
LSU needs to continue winning on first downs
LSU ranks No. 1 on EPA on first down and is averaging over 9 yards per play on those plays. There has been a noticeable difference in the level of aggression from LSU on early downs and therefore opening up the playbook to attack more parts of the field. The aforementioned success in the run game helps with that as well, but in general, the offense has been layered, dynamic, and built to play to the team’s personnel. It’s been a great bounce back season from Mike Denbrock and this offense after the inconsistencies in 2022.
“Our stuff rate is one of the lowest in the country, so we’re not operating behind the chains,” Brian Kelly said. “Our first down efficiency has been [built on] positive plays based on a number of factors and it starts with the offensive line. We don’t have run throughs, we don’t have missed assignments. Teams are being aggressive on first downs trying to get us behind the chains and we’ve done a good job of minimizing negative plays and a lot of that has to do with the quarterback getting us in the right play, the offensive line, and what we do offensively gives us run-pass options, so if teams are too aggressive we can get the ball out on the perimeter.”
Which secondary gets a stop?
LSU has Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr, while Missouri has Luther Burden and Theo Wease, The LSU tandem has combined for 73 receptions, 1162 yards, and 13 touchdowns, while Missouri’s duo has 67 receptions for 898 yards and eight touchdowns.
Neither secondary has been impressive this year as Missouri ranks 88th in pass defense EPA, while LSU ranks 132nd. Both defenses have relied on winning up front to potentially create some havoc, yet neither one does a great job of that. In what most expect to be a high-scoring affair, it’s up to the defenses to create a turnover or try to lock down the stud receivers on the other side of the ball.
“There are times when you have to do things to minimize his effect on the game,” Kelly said. “But last week we tried to defend everything and when you try to defend everything, you defend nothing. When you talk about Luther Burden or Malik Nabers, if that’s all your game plan is, sometimes you don’t defend Theo Wease, who is an outstanding player or you forget about the No. 2 running back in the league. Are we going to have to be aware of him in certain situations? Do we have certain things to address it? Absolutely, but you have to defend the other ten guys too.”
The post Keys to the game: Which defense steps up in LSU vs. Missouri appeared first on On3.
