2023 Oklahoma Football Preview
If you haven’t listened to my Hate Week podcasts with Joe Cook, Ian Boyd and Randy Boone, you should do so. It’s 3 total hours of game breakdown, each focusing on a different aspect of the Red River Shootout.
Here’s the quick and dirty on the dirt burglars…
OKLAHOMA OFFENSE
The Sooners have destroyed bad defenses admirably, putting 73 and 66 points on Arkansas State and Tulsa, respectively, while putting another 50 on Iowa State with scoring help from special teams and the defense. They’ve seen less success against a pair of teams with defensive pulses in SMU (28 points) and Cincy (20 points). The per game mean says 47.4 points per game, but the range tells you more than the average.
Both SMU and Cincy elected to make OU dink and dunk while stopping the run with generally honest numbers. They were both good at getting OU off of the field on 3rd and short as well, which short circuits the value of OU’s pace tactics.
A winning strategy worth emulation.
QB
This is the best I’ve seen Dillon Gabriel play at Oklahoma. He’s having a sensational season. Can he level up when the pass rush intensifies, passing windows constrict, coverage gets better and the game moves faster?
We’re going to find out.
OU is 3rd in the country in Passing EPA success rate and Gabriel is averaging 10.1 yards per pass attempt with 15 TDs and 2 INTs. SMU and Cincy held him down by playing off the receivers, forcing execution and preventing him from hitting intermediate and deep shots in the middle of the field. That game plan makes sense as Gabriel is a combined 24 of 36 for 652 yards and 6 touchdowns between the hashes on passes that travel greater than 10 yards. Yes, you read that correctly. Read it again. He’s averaging 18 yards PER ATTEMPT every time he throws a consequential depth of target over the middle.
Stuff like this…
61% of Gabriel’s completions at any distance come between the hashes.
Anyone for parking safeties in the middle of the field and having Jaylan Ford get great drops in pass coverage?
RB
They’re capable college running backs. I see guys like them every time I flip the channel Saturdays on FS2. There’s no Demarco Murray, much less a Kennedy Brooks. Marcus Major, Tawee Walker and Jovontae Barnes have effectively split snaps. Gavin Sawchuk, the back I like best, has been in the dog house. They’ll throw to both Major and Walker as well, but they’re not major weapons in the passing game.
WR/TE
TE Austin Stogner looks like a shell of himself. Poor blocker at the point of attack against anyone 225+. Capable pass catcher at 6-6, but no juice. The most explosive wide receiver is RS FR Nic Anderson, who has 5 touchdowns on only 10 catches at nearly 28 yards per catch. He’s the 6-4, 210 pound outside prototype they want to cultivate outside but he lacks game experience. Andrel Anthony (22-387) is their top yardage guy so far and the Michigan transfer has been a reliable asset. Jalil Farooq is their best YAC asset and very similar to Jordan Whittington physically. Very difficult to get on the ground. Drake Stoops rounds out the group and he is their stick-mover, averaging only 8 yards per catch on 25 receptions. They’ll also run Gavin Freeman there and he boasts a 5.3 yards per catch average.
As much as possible, Texas wants to force OU to run their offense through their slots and in the short game.
Their WR group has been better than anticipated, though my expectations were middling.
OL
Oklahoma is 55th nationally in run success rate and averages 4.0 yards per carry overall. Largely due to the OL being weak at the point of attack. The tackles have been good to very good all year as pass protectors. Walter Rouse from Stanford was a godsend in the transfer portal and Tyler Guyton is a big dude with good feet at 6-7, 325. Guyton isn’t a consistent run blocker though and tends to slip off of active defenders with motor.
The interior has really struggled to get any push in the run game. Center Andrew Raym is perpetually overrated for reasons unclear to me while RG McKade Mettauer is sort of their equivalent of Hayden Conner — good pass blocker, struggles to move bodies in the run game. Finally, they benched LG Savion Byrd for being absolutely terrible and replaced him with Appalachian St transfer Troy Everett. He’s a little undersized and has been…serviceable? He doesn’t get any push, but he’s doesn’t bust assignments.
They hold a lot, but they’re pretty good at grabbing cloth inside rather than on a shoulder.
Oklahoma has a fairly balanced run tendency profile, but attacks the edges more than any Lebby team I’ve seen in some time. They run more concepts than most Briles devotees but master none. They’ve been capable pass protectors for Gabriel. Will that hold when Sweat, Murphy and Collins are trying to collapse the pocket?
Collapsing the pocket is key. Gabriel is 5-10 and while he’s an adept scrambler, he does much better from clean pockets with clear reads than negotiating chaos. He’s not big enough to see over anyone. He needs throwing windows. That’s why Texas must have discipline in their rush lanes – narrow his field of vision and for God’s sakes don’t run past him and let him step up into the pocket. His running ability is a secondary concern. Something we need to watch on goal line and on 3rd downs, but he’s not Jalen Milroe.
OKLAHOMA DEFENSE
They’ve been as impressive as the Sooner offense thus far, surrendering only 10.8 points per game, but a deeper dive reveals a series of opponent offenses that range from dire to average.
Last year, OU was giving up 10 points per game after their non-con as well. Just saying.
Venables has them playing harder, more cohesively and he got rid of some dead weight. I don’t trust their rankings as his style of defense is very good at destroying poor offenses who can’t exploit some of the things he leaves available (see last year’s stats before they played KSU, TCU, Texas), but I have no doubt that OU is substantially better at every level.
Oklahoma must pressure Texas and Quinn Ewers to win. Texas fans need to be patient. There will be some poor series but Texas will also convert a 3rd and 15 on a blitz and will hit a big play on a screen. The question is how many men does OU need to bring to pressure and can they avoid busting coverages when Texas starts to attack their tendencies and assignment rules?
DL
Wake transfer Rondell Bothroyd has helped them outside. A big physical DE at 6-3, 275. Better run stopper than pass rusher, but he’s not totally incapable of getting sacks or pressures. Ethan Downs is the other edge. A lot of preseason hype and I’ve see him mostly bully bad tackles and go quiet against anyone solid or better. Oklahoma runs a tag team of options inside, mostly acquired from the portal, but also with holdovers like NT Coe and DT Kelly. 6-5, 290 pound Jonah Laulu is my favorite. High effort, great energy, can get off blocks. Kelly can pass rush in spurts from the inside.
They play a lot of guys and they’ve played really hard this year.
LB
Danny Stutsman is a good diagnostician and his “play fast” is good. He’s their leading tackler and very good at timing run blitzes (9 tackles for loss in 5 games). He’s big, but I’ve seen stronger backs run through him. Jaren Kanak is a great athlete trying his best to become a linebacker. Shaky so far, but he can cover ground fast.
DB
Oklahoma has shored up the secondary and they’re busting much less than last year. Tackling is better overall, but I don’t think their physicality has been tested much this year outside of SMU. Corners Gentry Williams and Woodi Washington will be key to their game plan if they want to bring 5 against the Texas offense.
I have no idea what they’ll do with the nickel or Cheetah position. That’s manned by 6-5, 225 Dasan McCullough who is an elite athlete but can’t cover Texas wide outs in space. As with Baylor and Kansas , the oversized nickel is not a good idea unless he’s just a blitzer and there’s coverage behind him. Safety Key Lawrence is strong in run support, but more of an unknown against better passing games. I like the other safety Billy Bowman a lot. Playmaker.
Texas will also see Texas Tech transfer Reggie Pearson and dynamic freshman Peyton Bowen.
Final Thoughts
One aspect of the game that’s crucial to discuss is pace. On both sides of the ball.
Texas has played slow offenses to date and that’s allowed Pete K to make significant personnel changes from down to down while also getting in leisurely play calls based on down, distance, field position and the other team’s substitutions. Texas staff are also calling in pre-snap directions based on formation right before the play. Texas won’t have that luxury in Dallas. OU plays fast and when they smell blood in the water or see confusion, they’ll play even faster. Last week, Kansas ran up to the line after run play to disallow subs or a defensive call and specifically attacked Kitan Crawford with a deep ball touchdown. That was noticed on film, I assure you.
Texas should pay considerable attention to tightening up rotations at safety and the defensive staff must make sure they have 2-3 base calls for the defense to get into without sideline guidance. If Texas is still looking at the coaches while the ball is being snapped, that’s not positive for the good guys and you’ll know we failed in a key piece of game planning or implementation.
On offense, Texas has the opportunity to vary pace when they want to do so. OU’s defense has a few core players, but they like to play a lot of guys on the DL and at LB to keep them fresh and let them play like maniacs for a few downs before they get a breather. Texas should find a good base set that they like and forbid OU subs on a few series. It might have an interesting effect on their defense’s competency.
I like the Horns in Dallas, but Texas/OU certainly has its share of upsets and crazy plays.
Saturday can’t get here fast enough.
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