Matchup Preview: Illinois at Purdue

Purdue-Illinois from a matchup perspective.

Time: Saturday, September 30, 3:30 p.m. ET

Surface: Bermuda Grass

Capacity: 61,441 (tickets)

2023 schedules/records: Purdue 1-3 (0-1 Big Ten); Illinois 2-2 (0-1 Big Ten)

Series Notes: The Boilermakers and Fighting Illini will meet in the Battle for the Purdue Cannon on Saturday, as the long-time rivals meet for the 99th time. Purdue leads the series 47-45-6 on the heels of a dominant stretch. Since 2003, Purdue took the Cannon in 14 of the 18 games, including six of the last seven years. The recent run by Purdue flipped the all-time series record in Purdue’s favor. The rivalry gets a new twist this year as Ryan Walters and Bret Bielema face off after coaching together in 2021 and 2022.

TV: Peacock (PxP Brendan Burke, Analyst Michael Robinson, Sidelines Zora Stephenson)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Pete Quinn, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Purdue -1.5, O/U 53.5

Pregame: First Look: Illinois, First and 10: Illinois at Purdue, Purdue’s Ryan Walters seeks first Ross-Ade, Big Ten win vs. familiar foe: Illinois, Purdue FB Number Crunching: Week 4, acrepro.com Buy/Sell: Purdue football Week 5, The 3-2-1: What is Purdue’s offensive identity?

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Illinois Roster | Illinois Game Notes

Illinois running game versus Purdue against the run

Illinois bid farewell to star tailback Chase Brown after last season, and it’s embraced a two-running back rotation so far this season. After taking carries behind Brown last season, Reggie Love III averages 5.6 yards per carry so far this season and leads the team in rushing. Josh McCray, who showed promise in 2021 before an early injury ended his 2022 season, gets carries behind Love and presents a big play threat in the open field.

Expect quarterback Luke Altmyer to get involved in the run game. He ripped off a 72-yard touchdown run earlier this season, showing the need for defenses to keep an eye on him. Altmyer leads the Illini with three touchdown runs, and given Purdue’s struggles containing opposing quarterbacks, this could present a challenge for the Boilermakers.

Purdue struggled to stop Wisconsin on the ground last week, showing that even though things change, many stay the same. The Badgers piled up more than 200 yards on the ground on Purdue, and the Illinois offense will look to do much of the same. Though the Illini offensive line likely won’t dominate as much as Wisconsin’s did, Purdue will need to show marked improvement stopping the quarterback run, both in designed run and scramble situations. Over the last two weeks, opposing quarterbacks have scampered for six touchdowns against Purdue. This could be the critical matchup to watch.

Illinois passing game versus Purdue against the pass

Altmyer transferred in from Ole Miss looking to operate Illinois’ simplistic, run-heavy scheme as well as Tommy DeVito did a season ago. The Illini offense operated smoothly last season, taking care of the football as well as any team in the nation. Altmyer hasn’t quite done that, tossing seven interceptions through just four games. The Illini don’t ask quarterbacks to play a Superman role, but Altmyer’s lack of ball security didn’t help Illinois in its two losses. He did, however, help engineer a game-winning drive in the season opener against Toledo.

Converted quarterback Isaiah Williams, who played quarterback against Purdue in 2020, has turned into the top pass catcher for Illinois. Averaging 83 yards per game, Williams established himself early as the clear top target for Altmyer and brings athleticism to the table on the outside. Pat Bryant and Casey Washington join him as outside targets while big tight end Griffin Moore provides a wide target.

Purdue’s defense improved against the pass the last two weeks, with the caveat coming in the fact that opposing quarterbacks ran wild against the Boilermakers. The Boilermakers limited Garrett Shrader and Tanner Mordecai to under 200 yards passing in the losses. Purdue continues to play lots of man coverage, testing its defensive backs on a down-to-down basis. The Boilermakers have picked one pass in each of their four games thus far, and they’d like that number to go up as part of the “Air Strike” philosophy. The combination of Kydran Jenkins and Nic Scourton will look to continue pressuring the opposing quarterback, but Purdue must finish off pressures instead of allowing the passer to escape.

Purdue running game versus Illinois against the run

Purdue went with a three-running-back approach against Wisconsin in a demotion for Devin Mockobee following early-season fumble trouble. Tyrone Tracy made the most of his opportunity, racking up 84 yards and a touchdown as the starting running back. Tracy, Mockobee and Dylan Downing all created big plays in the run game, as Purdue averaged 6.3 yards per carry against Wisconsin. How the Boilermakers split carries moving forward remains a question, but it possesses nice options in their trio of tailbacks. The ceiling of Purdue’s run game ultimately relies on the offensive line, which still looks like a huge question mark for the Boilermakers.

Hudson Card officially ran the ball 13 times against Wisconsin, many of which came as scrambles to escape Wisconsin’s pass rush. Card spent much of the first half under intense duress, forcing him to run frequently. He’s effective when he runs, highlighted by his touchdown run at the pylon, but Purdue would prefer if his runs came in a more controlled fashion.

After fielding one of the nation’s top run defenses in 2022, the Illini defense is more porous against the run this year. Through four games, opponents average 177 yards per game on the ground against Illinois. However, it’s worth pointing out that two opponents, Toledo and Kansas, heavily featured a running quarterback. The dynamic duo of Jer’Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph Jr. at defensive tackle leads the way for the Illini defense. However, defensive coordinator Aaron Henry still needs playmakers to emerge to return the defense to the 2022 level.

Purdue passing game versus Illinois against the pass

Card’s first four games can best be described as a mixed bag. He’s completed 62% of his passes for over 250 yards per game, however, he would like to improve his 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s delivered some good strikes downfield, and he’s often tasked with little time to decide due to pressure from the opposing defensive front. Deion Burks continues to live up to his offseason hype. The Belleville, Mich. native provides unmatched breakaway speed on the roster, while fellow Michigander Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen gives Card a reliable security blanket.

As tight end Garrett Miller continues to round into form following a season off, Max Klare looks the part of a long-time contributor for Purdue. The pieces are there for Purdue’s pass game, but Card needs more help from the offensive line to allow things to develop downfield.

Illinois lost three starters from last year’s dominant secondary to the NFL Draft, highlighted by top-ten pick Devon Witherspoon. As such, the secondary doesn’t look so overwhelming this season. While opponents complete just 56% of their passes against the Illini, they average nearly 250 yards per game through the air. Part of the issue? The Illini pass rush has generated just five sacks in four games, forcing just three interceptions. Henry follows the Ryan Walters template, asking his corners to play lots of man coverage, but without a formidable pass rush, it gets difficult to cover for such a long period. As long as Purdue’s line holds up, Card should create some opportunities for the offense.

Special teams

With Ben Freehill out, redshirt freshman kicker Julio Macias drilled his first and only field goal attempt on Saturday, looking good in the process. The Wisconsin game marked the season’s first game where Purdue didn’t miss a kick. In his third season, Punter Jack Ansell struggled against the Badgers and hasn’t taken the next step as a high-level field flipper to this point. Purdue’s return game impressed in the season opener, but ever since, we’ve not seen a big return change a game.

The Illini only attempted three field goals total in their first four games, and kicker Caleb Griffin made two of them. He made 14 of 19 field goals in 2022, knocking one through from 52 yards out. With a long punt of 63, punter Hugh Robertson can boot a big one, but he’d like to demonstrate more consistency. The return game hasn’t provided much yet this season for Illinois.

Intangibles

The first matchup between Bret Bielema and Ryan Walters will surely generate plenty of headlines. Walters became a rising star in the coaching profession as the defensive coordinator at Illinois, where he was named a finalist for the Broyles Award in 2022 while leading the Illini to an eight-win season. Now, he leads the Purdue program and will face off with his former boss, Bret Bielema, on Saturday afternoon. The two engaged in banter on Twitter over the summer, helping spark “talking season” conversation about the rivalry.

Over the past two decades, Purdue has dominated the rivalry, taking the Cannon home in 14 of the last 18 meetings. Last year’s loss to the Boilermakers especially stung for Illinois, who looked like the leader to win the Big Ten West before it fell at home to Purdue. Now, it’ll hope to spoil Homecoming for the Boilermakers as a bit of revenge.

Both teams enter this game 0-1 in Big Ten play, desperately wanting a win to generate momentum heading into the heart of Big Ten play. Purdue comes in on a two-game losing streak with two-straight losses at home, while Illinois didn’t exactly impress in a win over Florida Atlantic last week.

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