Carolina Confidential – Final thoughts on South Carolina vs. Mississippi State
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South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer laid out the case earlier this week for why the Gamecocks can’t overlook Mississippi State — and make no mistake, Carolina is not at the point as a program where it can overlook any conference foe and still feel good about coming out on top.
But in the context of what is easily one of the most difficult schedules in the country, this game sets up much further toward the more winnable side of the spectrum in a list of remaining games that are all winnable or losable.
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention how sweet it would have been to watch Mike Leach roll into Columbia and coach a game on the Williams-Brice Stadium sideline. He was one of my favorite coaches in terms of both personality and ability to do more with less. He has not only left an indelible mark on the game (his schemes are run at every level of football now from PeeWee to the NFL) but college football misses him greatly.
Mississippi State head coach Zach Arnett has the impossible task of replacing the unreplaceable in the larger-than-life Leach whose fingerprints were all over this program on and off the playing field.
On the field, as you’re aware if you’ve been reading up on this game this week, State has gone from Leach’s pass-happy approach to the RPO-focused, run-first mindset of former App State OC Kevin Barbay. As one would expect, the results have been mixed.
Quarterback Will Rogers — who was outstanding at manning Leach’s system — has gone from entering the season with 11,181 (!!) career passing yards and 87 career passing touchdowns to dealing with rumors that the Bulldogs could be ready to play Vanderbilt transfer QB Mike Wright.
As comfortable and accurate as Rogers was in the prior system, he has seemed equally uncomfortable so far in the new scheme which has led him to miss some throws that he could have probably made with his eyes closed before. That’s not to be too harsh on Rogers, and he could settle in as the year progresses, but the Gamecocks do catch State at a great time in that they are still very much figuring things out on offense.
An offensive line that was recruited to run the Air Raid system has actually been surprisingly good in the running game, though some of that is a credit to the SEC’s leading rusher, Woody Marks, a prototypical SEC back.
Game flow is sometimes a big factor in games like this and I think it can be even more important with the new clock rules. If there’s one scenario that I think concerns you from the Gamecocks’ perspective it’s Marks getting rolling early, wearing down the Carolina defense, and forcing the flow of the game into one much like the Missouri game last year. The Tigers controlled the flow of the game, ran the ball way more than they threw it, and put the pressure on Carolina’s offense to execute.
Now, I think this is a different Spencer Rattler and a different Carolina passing game but if there’s a blueprint for MSU to pull the upset I think that’s the one.
This does, however, set up for potentially another big game for Rattler.
The Bulldogs’ 3-3-5 defense, which Carolina fans will remember Charlie Strong employing with success in the early 2000s, is built to create havoc by bringing defenders from a variety of angles, but Mississippi State has struggled to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks so far this year.
The Gamecocks have obviously struggled on their own end to protect Rattler and have their own issues to try to fix but this could be the week we start to see that unit take another step forward.
Tree Babalade will no doubt make his second career start at left tackle and it won’t be a surprise if fellow freshman Tro Baugh makes his first career start at right guard.
If it plays out the way I expect, then there should be more big plays available for Rattler and the Carolina passing game.
The difference in a big Gamecock win vs. one that remains close could come down to if Carolina will continue to be a boom-or-bust offense that relies solely on those big plays or if the running game can start to show some signs of progress.
I didn’t expect Carolina to have much success running the ball against Georgia last week and they really didn’t try to much, but I think this is the week that you’ll start to see Dowell Loggains try to be a little bit more hard-headed in continuing to call the running game to try to get it going.
Loggains has proven that he’s willing to do whatever it takes to try and win a game and in most cases that’s ultimately going to come back to the shoulders of Rattler. But whether or not this team can take a major step forward and win a bunch of games the rest of the way is going to be highly dependent on if that running game can show incremental improvement moving forward. This is as good of a matchup as any for that process to start.
Final prediction: If you’re South Carolina, then Marks, a prototypical SEC back according to defensive coordinator Clayton White, concerns you. If you’re Mississippi State, then Rattler concerns you too. The Bulldogs will try to grind this one out like Missouri did last year and the Gamecocks will need to keep getting explosive plays. If Carolina can force a turnover or two, then this one could get out of hand but if Marks controls the pace then it will be a tight one in Willy B. South Carolina 31, Mississippi State 21.
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