Iowa vs Penn State Game Preview
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Kickoff: 6:40 p.m.
TV: CBS – Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, and Jenny Dell on the call.
Last Meeting: Iowa beat Western Michigan 59-3 in 2013.
The Weather: Periods of rain, temps in the mid 50’s, with winds 10-15 mph
The Line: Penn Stae is a 15 point favorite.
History: Penn State holds a 17-14 advantage in the overall series between the two schools. As a conference game, the two teams are tied at 11 wins each. Kirk Ferentz is 10-8 against the Nittany Lions and 4-4 in games at Penn State. Iowa has won the last two meetings in this series. Kirk Ferentz is 3-10 on the road against a top ten teams.
THE BREAKDOWN
Iowa rush offense vs. Penn State rush defense
The Iowa ground game showed plenty of life last week. The Hawkeyes rushed for 254 yards against Western Michigan, including a career best 145 yards by running back Leshon Williams. True freshman Kamari Moulton played for the first time this season and rushed for 50 yards and a pair of scores.
Overall, Iowa is averaging 151.3 yards per game on the ground and 4.2 yards per carry. One note this week is that the Hawkeyes will be without backs Kaleb Johnson and Jaziun Patterson. They were Iowa’s top two rushers prior to last week. Both are out with foot/ankle issues.
The Penn State defense has been very strong this season against the run. They are allowing 96.7 yards per game and just 3.1 yards per carry. They have given up four rushing touchdowns this year. Last week they held the Fighting Illini to just 62 yards rushing.
As far as tacklers, Curtis Jacobs leads the way at linebacker with 12 stops. Abdul Carter is also up there at linebacker and safety Jaylen Reed has 10 stops this season. Chop Robinson is their best defensive lineman and he has a pair of tackles for loss. Overall, Penn State has 20 tackles for loss with ten of those occurring in the run game. While Iowa showed signs of life in the ground game, it’s hard to see the Hawkeyes pushing around the Nittany Lions on Saturday night. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO PENN STATE
Iowa pass offense vs. Penn State pass defense
The Iowa air attack continues to be pretty limited. Also, Iowa will be moving forward without their leading receiver. Luke Lachey broke his ankle against Western Michigan and will be lost for the rest of the season. He had a team leading 10 receptions this season.
At the quarterback position, Cade McNamara has completed 38 of 71 passes (53%) for 417 yards and four touchdowns. He has also thrown three interceptions this season. One of those likely took potential points off the board last week at the end of the first half.
With Lachey out, fellow tight end Erick All will become a primary target. He has 7 receptions for 81 yards. Nico Ragaini has five receptions for 48 yards and Seth Anderson has 4 for 68. Diante Vines caught his first touchdown last week. He has 3 receptions for 14 yards. Look for tight ends Steven Stillianos and Addison Ostrenga to have a much larger role moving forward.
The Penn State pass defense has been strong all season. They have given up 170.1 yards per game in the air and just one passing touchdown. Penn State has five interceptions on the season with five different players picking off those passes. They have also broken up six passes. Kalen King is one of their top corners to go with Reed at safety.
From a pass rush perspective, the Nittany Lions bring plenty of pressure. They have accumulated 10 sacks this year and they have 12 quarterback hurries. Coziah Izzard has two sacks to lead the team. Curtis Jacobs has one sack and three quarterback hurries. Given Iowa losing Lachey and the limits of the passing game, it’s hard to see the Hawkeye passing attack making a significant impact. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO PENN STATE
Penn State rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense
While they haven’t run the ball particularly well early in the season, Penn State has two of the best backs in the Big Ten at their disposal. The combo of Kaytron Allen and Nicolas Singleton lead the Nittany Lion ground game. Allen has 208 yards rushing this season and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Singleton has 154 yards rushing this season and five rushing touchdowns.
Overall, Penn State is averaging 208 yards per game on the ground and a very impressive 4.6 yards per carry. They also have ten rushing touchdowns.
Iowa’s defense has been solid once again against the run. They have given up an average of 106.7 yards per game on the ground and an average of 3.5 yards per carry. Thus far, the Hawkeyes have not given up a rushing touchdown this season. Jay Higgins leads Iowa in tackles this year with 32 stops. Nick Jackson, Iowa’s graduate transfer linebacker, has 23 stops. Cooper DeJean has 19 tackles and Quinn Schulte has 17 stops. Defensive end Ethan Hurkett and defensive back Sebastian Castro have a team high three tackles for loss and Joe Evans has two.
This might be the most pivotal battle in this game. If Penn State can run the ball effectively then it could be a long day for the Hawkeyes. If Iowa is going to pull off the upset, then they have to hold Penn State under 150 yards. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO PENN STATE
Penn State pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense
The Penn State passing offense has been solid this season under the direction of sophomore signal caller Drew Allar. He was one of the top quarterback recruits in the country out of high school and Allar has done a nice job. He has completed 59-88 passes (67%) for 737 yards and four touchdowns and zero interceptions.
This favorite target this season is veteran wide receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith. He has 13 receptions for 220 yards and a pair of touchdowns. If you are looking for the Penn State home run hitter, he’s the guy. Fellow wide receiver Harrison Wallace has ten receptions for 98 yarsd and tight end Tyler Warren also has ten catches for 81 yards and a pair of scores. Singleton is a good receiver out of the backfield with five receptions for 68 yards.
Iowa’s pass defense has been solid, but they have given up four explosive plays in the air this year. Overall, the Hawkeyes are allowing 179.3 yards per game and they have given up three passing touchdowns this season. While Iowa’s defense has been known for intercepting passes, thus far this season they have only two, one by Xavier Nwankpa and the other by Sebastian Castro that he returned for a touchdown. The Hawkeyes have broken up 13 throws this year with Higgins leading the team with three.
From a pass rush perspective, Iowa has not gotten much of a result thus far this season. They have three sacks this season with one each for Nick Jackson, Joe Evans, and Deontae Craig. Iowa does have ten quarterback hurries with Evans leading the team with four.
It will be very interesting to see how Allar handles this moment. It’s a big spot for him and it’s also one there the Iowa secondary tends to come up big. ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Special Teams
Tory Taylor remains one of the top punters in college football. He has 12 punts this year for an average of 46.1 yards. He has dropped 5 punts inside the 20 yard line. Drew Stevens has been great on field goals and kickoffs. He is 4-5 this year with a long of 34 yards. Cooper DeJean will handle punt returns and is averaging 9.4 yards per return. Kaden Wetjen is expected to return kickoffs and is averaging 25.8 yards per return.
Riley Thompson handles the punting duties for the Nittany Lions. He is averaging 42.9 yards per punt and has three punts inside the 20 yard line this season. Alex Felkins has made 4-5 field goals this season with a long of 45 yards. Nicholas Singleton handles the kickoff returns for Penn State and is averaging 19.8 yards a return. Kaden Saunders is averaging 6.6 yards per punt return. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
THE LAST CALL
This could end up being Iowa’s only ranked opponent this season. That’s strange to think about, but that’s the reality of the Big Ten West this year.
One thing to watch on Saturday will be the weather. There is a tropical system that is forming just off the east coast that will be moving on land Friday night/Saturday and it’s expected to bring rain to Pennsylvania. There also might be some wind, but nothing too bad. Shades of the 2009 Iowa game? Hawkeye fans wouldn’t mind that.
Iowa is a 15 point underdog in this game. That’s a huge spread, especially for two teams ranked in the Top 25. So what’s the path to victory for the Hawkeyes?
There’s always a path. I’d like Iowa much more to pull the upset if this game were at Kinnick Stadium as opposed to a night game and white out in Happy Valley.
So here is my path for the upset for the Hawkeyes.
Obviously, Iowa needs to win the line of scrimmage. Both sides of it. They need to keep the Nittany Lions from running the football and setting up play action. On the other side, I suspect that Penn State will stack up the box and try to take Iowa’s ground game away and make Iowa throw the ball. The Hawkeyes need to run the football and get to around 150 yards.
Iowa needs to stay away from putting the ball on the ground and Cade McNamara needs to stay away from mistakes. Meanwhile, Iowa needs two interceptions and taking one for a score would be helpful.
Finally, remember how a special teams swung the game in 2009? I’m not saying Anterio Thompson needs to block a punt and pull a Clayborn, but Tory Taylor needs to flip the field on Saturday night.
Of course, all of that is easier said than done. Having said that, a rainy game could be a bit of an equalizer. I think this Penn State squad might be the best one that James Franklin has put together. They could end up in the College Football Playoff.
Iowa needs a good start. An early score from Penn State could be troublesome for an Iowa team that is missing quite a bit of their offense. My fear is Iowa might be running into a Nittany Lion team on a mission and looking to make a statement. PENN STATE 27 IOWA 13. My pick to click for Iowa is Nico Ragaini. He has a touchdown reception and 70 yards receiving.
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