Pre-Snap Read: Can Michigan State hang around and stun Washington?
East Lansing, Mich. – Through all of the tumult, embarrasment and disbelief of an unfortunately unforgettable week for the university and football program, Michigan State now gets to contend with the best passing attack in the country.
Gone is Mel Tucker (at least not officially, yet). Back in the building is Mark Dantonio, as an advisor and spiritual guidance of sorts.
Harlon Barnett is the interim head coach. He’s excited, and optimistic.
“This is a really good team,” Barnett said last night. “They come to those individual meetings with me, I’m telling them, ‘We have a good team.’ And I say, ‘Shhh… don’t tell nobody.’ We have a good team. We have a really good team, and we haven’t really hit our stride yet.
“It’s only been two games, but we’re going to catch a stride here and get going and start clicking, and watch out. Watch out. Remember I said that.”
On the down low, Tucker thought they had a sneaky good team, too. You can be good and still collect four or five losses when you play in one of the best divisions in college football (ask Ole Miss, last year).
No one is expecting Michigan State to beat Washington. But Barnett is.
I’ve been talking up Washington’s passing attack for 360 days, since pre-game last year, when few people knew what the Huskies had cooking. They handled Michigan State, produced the No. 1 passing offense in the country for 2022, went 11-2, beat Texas in the Alamo Bowl and finished ranked No. 8 in the final AP poll.
This week, they are once again No. 8 in the AP poll.
They’re good. But you know what? They aren’t great. They might not be as good as they were last year.
They have the best passing QB, in my opinion, in the country in Michael Penix. On3 ranks Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan the No. 2 and 10 wide receivers in the country.
Second-year head coach Kalen DeBoer is quickly becoming regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the country.
Put it together and it’s a frightening combination. In terms of pure pass game ability to stretch you vertically and horizontally with great concepts and a QB with a laser cannon (if I can mix metaphors), they are scary.
However, they weren’t 100 percent sharp last week.
The Huskies are good, but not great. They are not a complete team. They don’t run the ball well, and that’s going to hurt them against good teams.
They don’t stop the ball well. They are sloppy with gap control and keeping leverage on the ball.
They’re good. But they aren’t great. Last year, after the Michigan State game, I was saying that this unranked Washington team would be in the Top 10 at some point in the season. And they were.
Now, I kind of think this Top 10 Washington team is going to lose three games this year. Good teams (not great teams) can beat them. Is Michigan State a good team? Not yet. Not that we’ve seen. But Barnett thinks Michigan State is headed in that direction.
What type of team can beat Washington? Well, I don’t want to make you sick, but Michigan is the type of team that could handle Washington. Washington would have all kinds of trouble with Michigan’s ground game. Michigan has enough talent in the secondary to keep Washington under 28 points, and the Husky pass defense isn’t consistent enough to stand up to a quality passing attack.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
Washington’s weakness is its run defense. In order to hang with the Huskies on the scoreboard, you need to score by the dozens as well. And the easiest way to do do that is by bloodying their nose in the run game.
Washington gave up 168 yards rushing last week to Tulsa (on 40 carries, 4.2 per).
A week earlier, Boise State rushed for 138 yards (4.9 per), with no rush covering more than 13 yards. They had a lot of consistent six, and seven-yard gains.
Boise and Tulsa aren’t bad. But if Washington ran into a real run-game monster, they would have problem. That’s why they are not a complete team.
Michigan State’s running attack has been a disapointment thus far in the season. Nathan Carter has broken the 100-yard mark in each of the first two games, and he looks excellent. But Michigan State has had too many negative plays, too many short-yardage stoppages.
Michigan State has a chance to get that stuff corrected as the season progresses. And it needs to happen right now in order to hang around in this game.
Michigan State needs to get the run game going, cover ground, eat clock, keep Penix off the field, shorten the game, and of course turn it into points at the end of long, sustained, physical drives.
MSU’s passing attack has been decently opportunistic and semi-explosive against weak opposition thus far. Washington’s pass defense is pretty good, not great. Their pass rushers are well-decorated but they haven’t done much yet, this season.
It won’t take a great passing attack to move the ball through the air against Washington. I expect Noah Kim and his rising receivers to land some blows.
Washington’s running attack is not good. Their top running back was lost for the season in preseason camp. Their offensive line is functional, but not frightening. Penix is a good athlete, but his history of injuries discourages Washington from calling QB runs.
In short-yardage situations, Washington is not comfortable trying to bang it in.
These shortcomings will cost Washington against USC, Oregon, Utah, Oregon State. I’m not saying each of these teams will beat Washington, but Washington will taste some defeats.
The difference-maker is Penix. He’s sensational. The receivers are good. When they get into a rhythm, their pass game is lethal.
Enter Michigan State, which has had one of the worst pass defenses in the country in the past two years. Michigan State has undergone a bit of an overhaul in the secondary, with a youth movement of talent and toughness. Michigan State should be able to stop the run with a standard number inside.
Washington is going to throw for 375. They just are.
But Michigan State has shown good “same pageness” in the secondary this year with more use of cover-four zone, with cover-two sprinkled in. In the past two years, Michigan State has leaned heavily toward cover-three and man-to-man.
One coverage isn’t necessarily any better than another. But I’ve always felt that a good, solid, two-deep zone (like cover-two and cover-four) provides more safety nets, less risk, and harder hits. Michigan State has played more split safeties deep zone this year, and they have shown they can get 11 men playing with one brain. That was against the remedial offenses of Central Michigan and Richmond. Now can they do it against (statistically) the nation’s best.
You’ll find out when I find out. But after cramming Washington film over the last 12 hours (interrupted by Mark Dantonio’s briefing at the Michigan State Athletics Hall of Fame today), I have come away feeling that Michigan State has more of a puncher’s chance in this game that I’ve been thinking in the past 10 months.
It will take some luck, like Arizona State had last year when they shocked the Huckies. They need to get the run game going, survive the Washington air assault with bend-but-don’t-break zone, hang around, and find out.
Washington is the better team. A good team. But not a great team.
Michigan State has not been a good team thus far in the season. Tucker had a penchant for getting his team to rally for surprising performances (against Illinois and Wisconsin last year; against Michigan and Northwestern in 2020; and most of the 2021 season in general). He’s long gone. But a defiance remains within this team, and Barnett could do a good job of re-igniting it.
Tucker never did anything low-key. But, low key, thought this team was good, and would prove it.
Barnett agrees.
Is it possible this could happen, for this team, THIS freaking week?
Dude, I don’t write these scripts. But someone does. And sometimes it gets freaky.
PLAYERS TO KNOW
They have a great QB, NFL WRs, and an NFL defensive end.
QB 9 MICHAEL PENIX (6-3, 213, Sr., Tampa, Fla.)
* Four-star recruit, No. 55 in Florida.
* Transferred from Indiana.
* Preseason Third-Team All-America (Athlon).
* You don’t need the stats. Great arm, very good accuracy. Good footwork in the pocket. Makes good reads in a QB-friendly system that he fell in love with when he was at Indiana and DeBoer was the offensive coordinator there.
* According to some stat somewhere, he was hit only 20 times all last year. So if part of your plan is to light him up, good luck with that. He’s quick, someone is probably open, and the ball is coming out fast.
WR 1 ROME ODUNZE (6-3, 215, Jr., Las Vegas)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 135 in the nation.
* Ranked the No. 2 WR in college football by On3
* 7 catches for 132 yards against Boise State
Big, tall, rangy and smooth-stride fast. He’s going to be a first-round draft choice, probably high.
11 WR JALEN McMILLAN (6-1, 192, Jr., Fresno, Calif.)
* Four-star recruit, No. 38 in the nation.
* Highest-ranked recruit on the team.
* Ranked the No. 10 wide receiver in college football by On3.
* 8 catches, 95 yards against Boise State
OLB/EDGE 8 BRALEN TRICE (6-4, 274, Jr., Phoenix)
* Three-star recruit, No. 9 in Arizona.
* Preseason First-Team All-America.
* HM All-America last year by PFF, Second-Team by The Sporting News.
* 9 sacks last year.
* Had more pressures last year than Alabama’s fabled Will Anderson.
* 17 pct pressure percentage last year, but we haven’t seen him explode yet this year.
He plays like a 274-pound Jacoby Windmon (Windmon is about 245).
* Thick and strong with the bull rush.
THE LATEST ON WASHINGTON
* Their pass game is elite. You’re sick of hearing about that. But they were not at their sharpest last week (despite putting up 454 yards passing). How is that possible?
Well, WR Odunze dropped two curls and McMillan dropped a deep out-and-up. Penix threw an interception in the end zone, leaving it high, and his receiver maybe got knocked off route.
I’m grading an A-plus level, and Washington’s passing attack was merely a high-powered A-minus last week. And that’s good for humanity. You don’t need all these talented guys playing perfectly. The world might break.
McMillan also was stripped from behind for a fumble late in the first half after catching a little check-down crossing route. That fumble was nearly returned for a touchdown.
Penix had to make the tackle on the fumble returner because everyone else on offense just kind of checked out on the play with :04 left in the half. There was some troubling casualness about that play. Washington is talented. But have they been getting high on their press clippings? Penix hasn’t. Washington coaches lit up their players about quitting on that play.
Are there are other underlying problems of complacency at Washington that have yet to show themselves? It’s a talented roster, in year two of the DeBoer program, but we’re still learning about their ability to deal with success, praise and expectations.
WASHINGTON’S SHORTCOMINGS
Washington rushed for 109 yards last week against Tulsa (on 22 carries, 4.9 per).
41 of those yards came on two carries by WRs Ja’Lynn Polk and Odunze. Former Michigan State WR Germie Bernard had two carries for 8 yards. Penix had two carries for 11 yards (one was a fourth-down keeper. They don’t want to have to resort to doing that).
Their tailbacks rushed 16 times for 49 yards (3.0 per). Against Tulsa. That’s not pretty. That’s not a complete team.
If Michigan State can deploy the standard number in the box and stuff the run, then the Spartans can keep safeties deployed for the pass game. That’s a little simplistic. But you get the idea. MSU’s run defense, the strength of its team, should allow the Spartans the chance to play deep at times, change the coverages at times, disguise things, without playing on thin ice. This is not a pick your poison situation.
THE LATEST ON MICHIGAN STATE
I went through a rundown of MSU’s individuals on The Underground Bunker, in terms of their snap counts from last week and a brief take on each player’s progress.
The offensive line needs to round into fashion. Spencer Brown was replaced as the first-string right tackle in the second half last week by Ethan Boyd. I expect Boyd to get the start this week.
The interior tandem of center Nick Samac and left guard J.D. Duplain have not gotten off to a good start. They have played well in the past. They need to snap back to that level of play and take it up a notch, as was expected for their senior seasons.
This team can’t approach 7-5 or 8-4, win the winnable games, and forge upsets, unless the o-line and the run game become plusses.
Carter has been a plus. Tight end blocking was better last week. Now the o-line needs to come to the party.
I think the elements are there. But it’s past time.
* Michigan State had some bumps and bruises last week. Michigan State is going to miss Jalen Berger against Washington, assuming he is out. He had become a nice No. 2 back, especially with his pass catching ability.
Carter is good, but is he durable enough to tote the ball 20-plus times? If Michigan State is in position to win this game, that means the run game is banging. If that’s the case, who’s getting the carries? Carter for 22 carries, 23? Does he have that kind of durability.
Jaren Mangham, the transfer RB from South Florida? I’m not sure he’s any closer to coming back.
Jordon Simmons had a chance to stake his claim as the No. 2 guy last week. And he fumbled on his lone carry. They needed him to get 10 carries in mop-up time, and break one for about 25 yards, and feel good about him stepping in for Berger and Mangham.
Instead, running back depth is a severe question mark and a potential crisis.
Davion Primm looked okay for a couple of carries last week, and then he fumbled.
Who gets second-string carries this week? I’m guessing Simmons. Washington is going to be raking at him.
In order for Michigan State to win this game, the Spartans MUST win the turnover battle. Turnovers were a big reason why ASU shocked Washington last year. It’s no great analysis to say that Michigan State needs to knock a couple loose in this game, and somehow get an INT or two.
In no way can Michigan State afford to have a back-up RB barf up the ball. Can Simmons come through? Can Primm? Can Carter tote it 25-plus times? You’ll know when I know.
KEY MATCHUP
It’s MSU’s overall pass defense against Washington’s overall pass offense.
Michigan State isn’t going to put one cornerback on Odunze all over the field, or anything like that.
Michigan State will have some coverages and exotics on third downs. But for the most part, I expect Michigan State to continue to be varied with its coverage, and rotate from cover-four, to cover-three, to cover-two, with some Tampa-2 (which they showed last week).
Michigan State has played more two-deep zone this year than in the previous three years of the Tucker era. I think it’s a good move. And I feel better about the chances that Michigan State can remain on the same page in pass defense against quality passing attacks. That doesn’t mean they will shut down good passing attacks. It means they have a chance to “contain” Washington to 300 yards passing instead of giving up 450.
I said a chance.
I expect Michigan State to play a lot of defensive snaps in this game with two deep safeties and off coverage on at least one of the wide outs. Scottie Hazelton’s defense has made more use of two-deep zones. Now that Barnett is in charge, I think you could see more of a “keep the ball in front of you, don’t give up the big one, hit hard” type of philosophy, that was shared by Barnett, Tressel, Narduzzi, Dantonio and Perles and sometimes Saban. (When Saban had outrageous talent, he could play it any way he wanted, and usually tightened up with man-to-man AND hit hard with safeties AND stopped the run with the minimum number. But that’s not where Michigan State is right now).
My guess is the formula calls for deep coverages, make Pennix complete seven or eight or nine passes in a drive. Make them get into the red zone. Their run game dissolves a bit inside the 10. They like to throw the speed out in short yardage situations. Make them prove that they can be patient enough to matriculate the ball down the field, while avoiding a bad snap, a holding penalty, or a deflected pass for an interception, or any kind of pratfall that the football Gods might want to cook into the script this week.
DIME PACKAGE?
Michigan State won’t have to play all day with the dime package, as you might expect. Washington will play with one RB and two tight ends often enough that the Spartans won’t have to treat this, personnel wise, like an air raid matchup.
WHAT WASHINGTON DOES
Pac 12 analyst Yogi Roth said during last week’s telecast that Washington’s offense is a pure progression offense, meaning that Penix reads primary receiver first, then secondary receiver, then third receiver REGARDLESS OF THE COVERAGE.
I’ll have to ask around, but I think that’s kind of rare. It also explains why the ball comes out so quickly. If his first guy is open, it’s coming out. This simplifies things for him and shifts the pressure to the play caller.
It seems to be working pretty well, partly because the QB has that laser cannon (extremely strong arm, and very accurate) and he has terrific receivers.
The progression offense also explains why sometimes you might see a WR dead-leg it and barely get into his route. Sometimes they are doing it to keep a defender stationary. Other times it looks like guys are just plain conserving energy.
I’m not going to go in-depth about Washington’s route concepts and combinations. But they throw short to Odunze and McMillan more than you might expect.
If you play deep zones, they will scratch where it itches and find Odunze and McMillan on intermediate spot routes, hooks and sit-downs and move the chains 13 yards at a time. The WRs get to their spots smartly and swiftly, sometimes putting you on your heels with their shifts and motions, and the QB zips it on time and on target. Simple, but staggering.
UNCOMMON TRAITS
* Washington trades (or shifts) the strength of the formation before almost every play, usually by trading two TEs or two WRs from one side to the other.
Sometimes they shift. Then they motion.
When they shift and motion, they do it with QUICKNESS.
The man in motion is often SPRINTING faster than most motioning receivers that you see for most teams.
Sometimes they use that speed motion, into a speed out, making your defense move fast to keep up with the motion.
* Meanwhile, Washington isn’t really an uptempo team. Washington often huddles. At times, Washington uses the entire play clock.
With the way they run clock, if you can make them have long drives, and you can produce ball-control drives of your own, you can shorten this game and limit them to nine or 10 possessions. That’s the ticket.
They mix slow and fast with the way they play. They huddle. They usually burn a lot of the play clock. But while they’re doing it, they are executing quick-footed shifts and motions. They make a defense think and “play” for 25 seconds before the ball is even snapped!
Last year, I thought Michigan State was caught off-balance by Washington’s shifts and motions. I thought Washington succeeded in getting a pre-snap advantage time after time with its quick shifts and motions. Michigan State was trying to play a lot of man-to-man back then, and they got pantsed – partly because Michigan State was without Jacob Slade, Darius Snow and Xavier Henderson, MSU’s most dependable players at each level of the defense.
DeBoer will be telling his players that this Michigan State team will be better than the Michigan State team that Washington faced last year. He will tell them it’s going to be a hostile, emotional environment. He’ll implore them to strap it up tight.
Will they listen?
Or will they say, “Yeah, yeah coach. These guys suck.”
We will learn about Washington’s ability to handle expectations as we go.
SATURDAY CARTOONS
As for trick plays, or “cartoons” as West Coast offense friend of mine used to call them, Washington will have some ready. And some of them might build off of something they showed the previous week, much less the previous series.
WR McMillan scored on a Wildcat keeper against Boise State.
Then against Tulsa, he lined up as a Wildcat QB early in the 3Q. Penix was hidden as a wide receiver.
McMillan takes the direct snap, hands to Odunze, who flip-laterals it to Penix. All that stuff to give Penix a chance to throw.
No one was open. He threw it away.
But still, if a cartoon is coming, it’s likely going to be on a first-and-10. Basically they make you worry about everything, which is the sign of a frightful offense.
The good news is that they don’t have a HR hitter like Donavon Edwards or Mike Weber back there.
WHERE IS WASHINGTON VULNERABLE?
Run defense.
Their gap integrity gets a little undisciplined. That means sometimes when they one-gap in their defensive front, they don’t get a guy in every gap. They leave daylight for ball carriers. Not all the time. But too often to be a sound, complete team.
It happened last year too. They are aggressive on defense and bring people to the line of scrimmage, swarming the gaps, but sometimes they end up with two people in the same gap, and leave another gap open. That’s what happened on a zone read handoff last year by ASU which popped for 26 yards, keying an ASU drive which gave ASU a 17-10 lead late in the first half.
A few plays later, UW had a coverage bust on the blitz side, resulting in 15-yard TD flare into the blitz. That was a key TD in ASU’s big upset. That drive was fueled by undisciplined defense.
* Last year, UW played a lot of press man-to-man, unafraid to flow people fast to the line of scrimmage. We’ve seen some of that this year, but not much. Maybe they’ve been saving it for Michigan State.
Their theory seemed to be: “We don’t care if we give up a play or two with aggressive, sloppy defense. We’re going to beat you in a shootout. And in the process, if we’re aggressive, we are probably going to have enough plays where we outnumber you and get you stopped and get the punts that we need to have our edge. So we’re going to be aggressive and gamble a little bit, and we have the offense to back it up.”
That’s kind of a John L Smith approach to life. You can do that when you have Penix and these receivers. It’s usually enough.
HOW ARIZONA STATE STUNNED WASHINGTON LAST YEAR
Washington’s loss to Arizona State last year is an interesting case study for the type of formula and scenario Michigan State needs to stay in this game, hang around, and find out.
Washington has almost all of the skill players back on offense that they had last year, although their RB talent isn’t as good, and the offensive line took a little bit of a hit.
But in terms of Penix, the WRs and TEs and play design, last year’s ASU game is worth watching for Michigan State’s purposes.
UW lost back to back games last year, both on grass, at UCLA (40-32) and at Arizona State (45-38).
ASU was 1-4 at the time, and was a team that eventually went 3-9 with an interim coach. The outcome was a shock, to those of us who thought Washington was good. Nationally, not a lot of people noticed this upset because not a lot of people were taking Washington seriously yet.
But I was. And I was shocked.
So how did it happen?
ASU began by playing a lot of deep coverages on defense. They played their LBs deeper than usual LB level. Played two safeties deep most of the time, played a lot of off coverage on the corners.
This made ASU light in the box for run defense (light in terms of number of players deployed there). But ASU was okay with that. ASU allowed a ton of first downs and completions, but few big plays through the air.
ASU rushed for 163 yards (4.9 per with a long of 26) and passed for 241 (22 of 30 with 1 INT).
Michigan State needs similar numbers. Michigan State is capable of going for 170-plus on the ground. Washington will fly defenders to the point of attack, and sometimes when a run game is out-numbered, it will look bad for the offense. But that can open up MSU’s play action and bootleg passing game, which has looked pretty good with Kim.
Penix, in the loss to ASU, was 34 of 54 for 324 with no TDs (ASU had 5 rushing TDs and rushed for 177).
But Washington averaged only 6 yards per pass attempt. 6.0 yards per pass attempt would rank No. 6 in the Big Ten right now. That’s not bad. Doing that against Washington? You take that all day.
Washington gained 177 yards rushing (not counting a 30-yard loss on a bad shot gun snap which dropped the net rushing total to 134). Bottom line is Washington GAINED 177, with a long of 42. That’s good, but Washington can’t make you pay with the run game if you over-play the pass the way Baylor used to, or Tennessee did last year.
Michigan State won’t “over-play” the pass. The Narduzzi/Barnett/Dantonio/Tressel mindset is always to stop the run first. But this Washington situation is the ultimate test to that philosophy. I mean it’s a GREAT passing attack and a mediocre run game.
Washington’s running attack was better last year.
ASU began by playing deep and daring Washington to run the ball. And as the game progressed, ASU mixed in more man-to-man, and some press coverage. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn’t.
On the 42-yard Washington run, ASU happened to be in man-free (single safety deep, man to man underneath) on second-and-10 with a 38-24 lead. ASU did UW a favor by playing man-to-man there. ASU seemed to want to avoid playing man-to-man in the first half, aside from some sprinkles of it here and there. But this man-to-man call, with a 14-point lead, didn’t work out well for ASU.
Odunze had nine catches for 115, with a long of 25. McMillan had only four catches for 25 yards with a long of 13.
No receiver had a reception of longer than 26 yards.
ASU happily lived with those numbers.
Washington had 87 offensive snaps. That’s a ton. Washington had 32 first downs. That’s a ton.
ASU only had eight incompletions (22 of 30), one INT and averaged 4.9 yards per carry. ASU punted only twice and had one turnover.
ASU’s opening drive went 12 plays in more than six minutes, covering only 40 yards, netting a field goal. Not a lot of points, but that was a pretty good answer to Washington’s opening TD drive.
Next drive, UW kicked a field goal and then ASU went 75 yards in 4 minutes and 30 seconds to tie the game at 10-10 and we had a ballgame.
Next drive, UW went three and out.
Then ASU went 90 yards for a TD on 11 plays and more than 4 minutes and we REALLY had a ball game.
So your offense has to be part of your defense. Possess the ball. You need to produce points in the process, but keep Penix off the field. That’s what ASU did.
ASU changed it up occasionally. On third-and-14 in the second quarter, ASU pressed the two widest WRs in man-to-man, and played three-deep zone behind it. (ASU was flagged for pass interference. That down wasn’t a winner, but it demonstrates ASU’s willingness to mix in some combo coverage)
Three plays later, it was third-and-nine in the red zone and ASU played off coverage, four-across, quarters zone. Penix threw underneath to the TE Westover, a safety blasted him to knock the ball out for an INC. Forced a field goal. Kind of reminded me of a Mike Hankwitz/Northwestern approach when out-manned. Four accross, keep them in front, hit hard, knock it loose.
Mixing it up, ASU played press man-to-man on three receivers with one safety deep on a third-and-five in the second quarter. ASU rushed five.
Penix threw a 15-yard back shoulder fade, INC high. ASU’s cover corner was 6-1, 190 on that play, and he put hands on Odunze, harassed him and got him covered. ASU didn’t ask that DB to cover him all day. Just once in awhile. He got it done on that play for a three-and-out.
MSU’s cornerbacks are not great. But they are pretty good, and still improving. They don’t have to be great in man-to-man for 60 plays, just a few plays, here in there, in some situations.
At some point, you have to play some man-to-man. On those occasions, whether it’s Brantley or Tatum or Armorion Smith or even Angelo Grose on Odunze (or McMillan), you have to find a way to survive, like the ASU DB did on that play.
Mixing it up: Late in the 2Q, ASU played press on the widest receiver on a first-and-10 with two safeties deep. Penix completed underneath to TE Westover for about 12. No harm done. But ASU had shown something not ultra-conservative on defense, with press coverage.
Two plays later on second-and-10, ASU was back to a soft quarters zone. Penix surveyed and went to his third read. His pass was batted at the line of scrimmage, up about 15 feet in the air, into the hands of an ASU defender, returned 35 yards for a TD, and suddenly ASU was up 24-10 late in the first half.
(Late in the third quarter, an ASU linebacker dropping into zone coverage batted another one into the air, but it fell to the ground. Breaks are out there to be made).
Mix it up, get lucky, hang around, find out: Next drive, UW scored (TE seam route against three-deep zone).
Next UW drive, ASU mixed it up with an old fashioned zone pressure (four man rush, DE drops, LB rushes) on third-and-five. Penix swing pass to the RB. RB in the open BUT HE SLIPS AND FALLS short of first down yardage.
Hang around, get lucky, find out.
So they go for it on fourth-and-one.
Remember that part about lacking a dependable run game?
On that fourth down play, UW had Penix under center WITH NO RUNNING BACK behind him. He had THREE tight ends with 1 WR in the game and moved the RB to H back.
Everyone is expecting QB sneak, right? With Penix and his injury history? I don’t think so. Odunze comes in motion. What do you think it’s going to be?
Correct.
Jet sweep to Odunze to the strong side. ASU defeated the play side blocks, didn’t bite on counter action the other way, and stopped Odunze for a loss of 2.
Hang around, find out.
With 3 minutes left in the game, on fourth-and-eight, ASU went off man-to-man against five receivers, and blitzed six, with no one at the LB level and no safeties. For that situation, they felt like they had to play man and bring heat. They did. Penix tried to hit Odunze on a nine-yard stick route. Pretty well covered. Incomplete high.
Had to play some man-to-man at some point. Get ‘er done.
UW’s last drive in the final minute. The Huskies drove to the ASU 31-yard line with :25 seconds left, down a TD. On third-and-10, low snap from center. Loss of 25! Then on fourth-and-35 with :05 left, they failed.
Hang around, get lucky, find out. ASU wins.
Can Michigan State incorporate and follow a similar script? Absolutely. It will take some luck, and an off game from Washington, but it’s possible.
GUESS THE GAMEPLAN
Where does it start for Michigan State? With pass defense.
* Play with two deep safeties, a little more off coverage at CB. Not all the time. Barnett won’t believe in that. But mostly play deep zone. Give up the intermediate chunks. Make Penix show he is patient enough to throw underneath all day.
If it’s your day, and you’re playing well, at some point when you’re changing up zone coverages there will be a time when maybe he throws a flat route when he thinks the CB is going to sink back into cover-three or cover-four. But it’s actually cover-two with the hard-hitting cornerback staying home, and lighting up full-throttle into one of Washington’s pet flare passes to the flat.
Michigan State is varied enough in its zone coverages to potentially bash up a turning point play on something like this.
Penix did make one mistake on an INT last week when he didn’t see the safety playing the flat. He’s very good and very smart, but Michigan State will be disguising multiple zones, hoping to catch a hard-hit break or some thievery.
Play zone, play together, play smart, hit hard all day. And try to get one or two to pop out for fumbles.
Sounds like something you would want to do every week, right? Well, yes. But in this game, it needs to happen. You need to steal a possession or two.
SOBERING STATS
Washington didn’t punt last week. The Huskies beat Tulsa 43-10.
Why only 43 points? Well, the Huskies were intercepted once in the end zone, and fumbled once, and kicked one field goal.
Remember the part about Washington playing slow and huddling? They chewed up their own clock. Washington only had the ball NINE times in this game. The most they possibly could have scored on offense was 63 points.
Meanwhile, Tulsa moved the ball a little bit. Tulsa converted six of its first 11 third-down situations. That chewed up some clock. Tulsa ended up 7 of 17 on third down, which wasn’t quite enough to keep this thing closer.
ONE HAD WASHING THE OTHER
In the Husky pass game, a lot of times, it’s a matter of one hand washing the other. Odunze and McMillan are their danger guys. Quite often, at least ONE of them is running a shallow route, a short hitch, a swing. It’s not like these guys are stretching vertical every single play. They throw short a lot, especially if you play a conservative zone.
Odunze’s presence can draw a man and a half. If that’s happening, McMillan or Polk get get open elsewhere. If not, Penix will hit the short route to a stud like Odunze.
Next play, McMillan might be the short release man.
As good as these two are, there doesn’t seem to be a many times when they both release vertically.
As for one hand washing the other, there was an example in the Tulsa game which resulted in a 33-yard pass play to WR Polk, their third WR threat.
Odunze came in orbit motion to the left side, and with it a lot of legs and eyes went with him. Tulsa played three-deep zone. UW released McMillan AND Polk, threatening deep toward the left CB.
They raced at the CB, and McMillan kept going deeper. The CB had to stay as deep as the deepest, so he went with McMillan. Polk stopped and broke off his route on a comeback to the sideline. Easy rope to Polk for about 20 yards through the air and another 13 after the catch. The ball was on time and accurate of course. Whether it’s to the wide side or the field or not, it doesn’t matter with Penix. He’s lasering it.
The point is the presence of McMillan and Odunze opened that up for Polk. One had washing the other.
FLOODING THE SHORT SIDE
Some of Washington’e s favoritconcepts end up with three receivers to the short side of the field, quickly flooding the area with more guys than you can get too. And it’s a flash flood. It develops RIGHT NOW. Ball is in the air.
Sometimes it’s the two-WR side at pre-snap, then they quickly motion a guy to that side, or release the back-side H back over there, and in an instant the DBs might have thought the short side was a two-receiver side, but it suddenly is a three-receiver side, and the ball is out, and accurate, and into the hands of an excellent athlete, and your defenders had better have anticipated this a beat earlier.
This was the situation when TE Culp (83) turned a simple out route into a 30-yarder up the sideline last week.
IN THE RED ZONE
UW likes the rub routes, the out routes. They seem to like to stretch you horizontally (to the sideline) with pass plays inside the 10-yard line, and they need to be creative with that because they aren’t always that great with the run game inside the 10.
ADD IT ALL UP
Michigan State doesn’t necessarily need to pitch a perfect game in order to win this game, but they need to be close to perfect. Be on the same page on defense, hit hard, force at least two turnovers.
You can play good defense and still give up 350 yards passing. If you can keep their run game under 100 yards without deploying too many resources to stop the run, you’re in line to cause trouble for them.
MSU’s offense needs to be part of its defense. Michigan State isn’t regarded as an offensive superpower, but Washington has had its problems on defense, and the Spartans COULD be packing some potential on the offensive side of the ball that hasn’t yet detonated. Is the o-line ready to play with collective physicality, end the errors, and put a hole in some people? That’s one of the missing ingredients, and if the o-line and run game had hummed through the first two games like some of us expected, the path to victory would be more realistic in this game.
The most likely scenario is Washington scores in the 30s and Michigan State scores in the 20s. If MSU’s run game awakens, Michigan State can get into the 30s, too.
The post Pre-Snap Read: Can Michigan State hang around and stun Washington? appeared first on On3.
