Broome’s Big Ten Bets, Week 3: Can Michigan finally cover a huge non-conference spread?
The Michigan Wolverines take on Bowling Green on Saturday looking to move to 3-0 on the season. We are still looking for our first U-M pick to hit after picking them to cover the huge spread two weeks in a row. People have blamed the clock rule for the issues covering the spread, but it really has come down to a lack of explosive plays.
Across the league, Week 2 was a step in the right direction. We’re now back to .500 on the young season after a lackluster first week.
Record last week: 6-5
Record in 2023: 11-11
A new week brings about a new set of matchups and picks. Let’s get into it.
The Michigan pick
Bowling Green at No. 2 Michigan (-40.5, o/u 53.5), 7:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
Michigan has been mostly efficient in its first two games, but there has not been a ton of second half scoring, and no points in the fourth quarter by the backups. That has prevented a few potential covers in the first few weeks. I’m not confident enough to pick a cover this week. But I think there’s a good chance Bowling Green doesn’t score.
Pick: Under 53.5
The rest of the Big Ten
Virginia at Maryland (-15.5, o/u 48), Friday at 7 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
The Terps had trouble covering against Charlotte and Biff Poggi last week. The Hoos are still figuring things out, but we like them to compete in this game.
Pick: Virginia +15.5
No. 7 Penn State at Illinois (+14, o/u 48), 12 p.m. ET, FOX
Illinois has a chance to turn this into a street fight, and that might be its only shot at making this competitive. However, we think Penn State rolls and makes a statement about its ability to compete for a conference crown.
Pick: Penn State -14
Louisville at Indiana (+10, o/u 50.5), 12 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
Indiana is at home and has shown a little more fight than we thought it would early on this season. Former Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm leads Louisville now and comes back to the state, and we can see this one getting out of hand.
Pick: Louisville -10
Georgia Southern at Wisconsin (-20, o/u 65), 12 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
Wisconsin is clearly still finding itself under Luke Fickell, and Georgia Southern is bringing an offense that can hang into this game. The Badgers are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games. GSU will compete.
Pick: Georgia Southern +20
Minnesota at No. 20 North Carolina (-7, o/u 51), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Gophers have proven to be a physical and scrappy football team, which are things people start to say to compliment you when you’re not anywhere as exciting as some of your peers. UNC QB Drake Maye could push for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft, and the Tar Heels have a chip on their shoulder right now over the Tez Walker situation. North Carolina rolls.
Pick: UNC -7
Northwestern at No. 21 Duke (-17, o/u 48.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network
The Wildcats may have grabbed their only win of the season last week against UTEP. There might be a case for Duke to cover, but this feels like an ugly one coming.
Pick: Under 48.5
Western Michigan at No. 25 Iowa (-28, o/u 43.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
How is Iowa favored in a game by 28 points when it can hardly score the 25 points a game it will take for Brian Ferentz to keep his job?
Pick: Western Michigan +28
Virginia Tech at Rutgers (-7, o/u 37), 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
I’m picking the over out of curiosity. I have nothing else to say about this game.
Pick: Over 37
Western Kentucky at No. 6 Ohio State (-30, o/u 65), 4 p.m. ET, FOX
Something is fishy about this game. I don’t know that Western Kentucky is a threat to win but we’re going to get a lot of points. It feels like the Buckeyes are going to light up the scoreboard now that there is clarity on the QB situation.
Pick: Over 65
No. 8 Washington at Michigan State (+16.5, o/u 56), 5 p.m. ET, Peacock
It’s been a long and emotional week for the Spartans, and things do not get any easier with Michael Penix Jr. coming to town. Somehow, I think the troops are rallied this week in East Lansing, and that Mel Tucker’s suspension – and let’s call it what it is, dismissal – will lift a weight off their shoulders.
Pick: Michigan State +16.5
Northern Illinois at Nebraska (-13, o/u 42), 7 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
I picked Nebraska to win eight games in the football preview magazine. I refuse to believe they are as bad as they have played on offense the first two weeks. Blind faith pick incoming.
Pick: Nebraska -13
Syracuse at Purdue (+2.5, o/u 56.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Purdue went to Virginia Tech last week and grabbed a nice victory. Now it gets a chance to come home and defend its turf. Syracuse is 7-1 in their last 8 games in September against the spread.
Pick: Syracuse -2.5
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