Analytics Corner: South Carolina-Georgia Numbers to Know
South Carolina bounced back last weekend with a resounding 47-21 win over Furman. This week, the Gamecocks travel to Athens with the opportunity to pull off an improbable upset. Here, we’ll break down what the advanced numbers say about the Gamecocks’ chances.
Dakereon Joyner – Furman Paladins at South Carolina Gamecocks – Sept 9 2023 – Credit Chris Gillespie
The Numbers say…
As one of the top matchups in the country this week and a CBS standalone game, South Carolina-Georgia is not lacking for previews and predictions. As we dive into some numbers-driven databases, what kind of chance does South Carolina have?
ESPN’s FPI
ESPN’s Football Power Index, a measure of what teams are expected to do in the future, gives South Carolina just an 8.3 percent chance to pull off the upset Saturday. It’s worth noting that FPI has severely underestimated South Carolina each of the past two years and currently ranks the Gamecocks 12th in the SEC.
The metric gives Georgia a 15.1 percent chance of winning out. Ironically, Georgia is ranked below 1-1 Alabama in this metric, which has never been a favorite of mine.
[Win a Spencer Rattler-autographed football]
Bill Connelly’s SP+
SP+ is not at its best right now as the transfer portal has hurt its efficiency due to a reliance on previous season data early in the year. Still, the Gamecocks are faring slightly better there, ranking 52nd in the country. The Gamecocks’ offensive ranking is limited by an inability to finish drives against North Carolina, while the defense has slowly climbed to 60 this season after finishing last year in the 70s.
The metric has South Carolina as one of the better bets of the week, giving the Gamecocks just a 9 percent chance to win outright, but predicting a margin of defeat of 22.9 points, much lower than the 27.5-point spread.
Parker Fleming’s CFB Graphs
Parker Fleming (@statsowar) is a newcomer in the predictive analytics game, but I respect his opinion a ton. According to the numbers he uses, South Carolina has just a 4.39 percent chance to win in Athens.
We’ll get to matchups in a minute, but South Carolina’s offense has outpaced Georgia in most categories this year, including EPA per play and success rate. Specifically on early downs, South Carolina’s offense holds the distinct advantage.
[Win a framed print of The Taunt/D.J. Swearinger from Vista Art]
Matchups to Watch
This is an analytics preview, so I’ll try to stick to the numbers. However, there are a few spots on the field that I’m watching. I’ll use numbers to further my analysis, but there are a few keys to break down and matchups to watch.
South Carolina’s Offensive Line vs. Georgia’s Defensive Line
There’s a distinct possibility South Carolina plays three to four freshmen along its offensive line Saturday. Normally, that thought would be terrifying. However, freshmen Trovon Baugh and Tree Babalade each put up solid PFF pass blocking grades in their first meaningful action and did not allow a single pressure against Furman.
On the flip side, this Georgia front is not nearly as strong as it has been in years past. The Bulldogs are ranked 94th in pass rush by PFF and have collected one total sack in two games against lesser competition. Only two pass rushers with at least 15 rushes have a pass rushing grade above 65. The starting four have a combined four pressures through two games.
If South Carolina’s offensive line can hold up, Spencer Rattler should be able to push the ball down the field against a thin secondary.
[Win tickets to the South Carolina-Mississippi State football game]
South Carolina’s linebackers vs. Georgia’s running backs
South Carolina fans don’t need numbers to know that Mike Bobo wants to run the ball early and often. However, the Bulldogs haven’t moved the ball well on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are 92nd in yards per game and have a rushing success rate of 34.3 percent, just a fraction of a percentage point higher than South Carolina’s.
While South Carolina’s defensive success rate against the run has been decent, the Gamecocks are near the bottom in EPA allowed per run, meaning other teams have gashed them at times. I’m interested to see if the South Carolina front can stymie the Georgia rushing attack and force the Bulldogs to throw.
The Georgia running backs have broken a combined five tackles on 39 attempts this season (For reference, Dakereon Joyner has broken five on 23 attempts). If South Carolina can hold up at the front, the game becomes a lot more interesting.
Brock Bowers vs. Everybody on South Carolina’s defense
With receiver Ladd McConkey potentially out, it’s that much more important that South Carolina contain tight end Brock Bowers.
Many have pontificated that Nick Emmanwori could cover Bowers if healthy, but the numbers don’t quite support that. Last year Emmanwori was a rock in run defense, but allowed a team-high 122.9 passer rating against in coverage.
From a size and speed standpoint, the Gamecocks could decide to put Debo Williams on Bowers, but that takes his focus off of stopping the run.
In all likelihood, South Carolina will put DQ Smith on Bowers when he’s in the slot and shade a safety his way. However, that leaves Missouri transfer Dominic Lovett, who caught 10 passes for 148 yards against South Carolina last season, one-on-one on the outside.
South Carolina cannot double-team Bowers every play, so the safeties and linebackers will need to limit his production. Doing so will force Carson Beck to throw into tighter windows and beat them with his arm.
Numbers to Track
There are always a few unique stats to track each game and here are three I’m watching for Saturday.
Early Down Success Rate
South Carolina has historically struggled to stay ahead of the chains. Under Beamer, the Gamecock offense has consistently hit explosive plays at an above average rate. If the Gamecocks get into third-and-long situations, however, things can go sideways quickly.
Success rate on early downs is defined at five or more yards on first down and half the yardage to the first down line or more on second-and-five or longer. On third or fourth down, success is obviously moving the chains. This year, the Gamecocks are ninth nationally in passing success rate, due mostly to Rattler’s excellent completion percentage.
The Gamecocks aren’t going to drop back and heave it deep every play. They’ll need to be successful with their horizontal passing as well. That leads to our next number.
Broken Tackle Rate
I used South Carolina’s broken tackle rate to emphasize the ineffectiveness of Georgia’s rushing attack this season. South Carolina’s receivers also have more missed tackles forced with 14, but 11 belong to the injured Ahmarean Brown.
South Carolina was much better against Furman, breaking a tackle on 35 percent of designed runs. The Gamecocks also had 166 yards after the catch, averaging 5.2 after the catch. That’s an impressive feat considering the receivers had a total of 1 yard after the catch on five touchdown receptions.
I don’t expect South Carolina to find much success running up the middle, so attacking the edges with quick passes is a must. If the receivers can pick up yards after the catch, the offense should click.
Defensive Pressure Rate
South Carolina simply has to win on the defensive line to have a chance. The Gamecocks are not likely to put up 40 points, so they’ll need some stops to compete. Carson Beck has been accurate under pressure, but he’s only faced pressure eight times. When inconsistent, pressure is easier to beat. When it’s consistent—as we saw in the North Carolina game—even the best quarterbacks struggle.
Georgia wants to wear down a defense. But if Beck faces constant pressure, he’ll put the ball in danger and South Carolina can capitalize. If that happens, I think (and the numbers agree) South Carolina might have more of a chance than some believe.
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