Beating Vegas Week 3: 2023 CFB Betting

A very successful week 2. Thank you Texas, Kansas, Oregon State, Ole Miss, El Assico under and Kansas State. I’m glad I avoided any positions on Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas A&M. Though I belly laughed just the same.

A great week could have been even better.

In last week’s Beating Vegas article, I advised that everyone make a high return prop bet on a defensive TD in Iowa St-Iowa. I then laid a bunch of bets…and forgot to make my own.

Naturally, I thought I had and cheered when Iowa got the Pick 6. Then I logged in…

WHAT I LIKE

Army @ UTSA UNDER 46

UTSA has scored 34 points total over the last two weeks against Houston and Texas State. Dr. Frank Harris is banged up and this game is a Friday turnaround against a service academy that will play passable defense and milk the clock rules whenever possible. UTSA has played good defense this year and even a strong 28-10 style Roadrunner victory doesn’t touch the number.

That UNDER could be combined with the spread (currently Army +9.5) for a smaller parlay but I got the initial +11. Look, I like the under. You do what you like with the spread.

Kansas State -4.5 @ Missouri

A trap game in Columbia as Eli Drinkwitz fights for his job, but Missouri struggled to handle Middle Tennessee State last week and KSU’s offense is in midseason form. Can Missouri exploit Kansas State’s undersized DL and a green secondary? There’s no evidence of that. Ultimately, I trust KSU’s offense much more than Mizzou’s so I’ll lay the points to the home dog.

Penn State -14.0 @ Illinois

Illinois has a terrible OL and an inexperienced secondary but makes up for it by being dirty and stupid. We need Franklin not to match the Illini style and pace, unleash his pass rush and let Allar throw down the field. The Big 10 has a good shot at two playoff teams – does Franklin understand that style points matter in the equation? Backdoor cover is the fear here, but that applies to fading any double digit home dog.

USC -11 @ Colorado

They don’t play until September 30th, but there are lines out right now. I like USC at any number under 13. Colorado is much better than anticipated, but much better means 6-6, not PAC championship contenders.

MONITOR

Maryland -14 Virginia

Colorado State +22.5 @ Colorado

Texas -28.5 Wyoming

See if the public bets CU up to -25 and then make a decision on how good you think the Buffaloes really are. It’s a rivalry game and CSU, recently taken to the woodshed in their opener by a pretty decent Washington State, had a bye week to get right and will start a more effective QB.

Fade Virginia whenever possible. Monitor and see if you can sneak -13.5.

I think Texas is bettable at -28 and under as Wyoming will struggle to score. -28.5 irritates me, particularly if Sark uses this as a developmental game if Texas breaks open a commanding lead.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

LSU -9.5 @ Miss State

Taking the fat spread on a home dog is a SEC imperative, but something ain’t quite right in Starkville. The Bulldogs had to go to overtime to beat Arizona last week and while LSU’s starting CB’s would be running 3rd team at Texas, I’m not sure that the new run focused Dawg offense can fully exploit them if LSU attacks up front instead of making Harold Perkins the world’s most useless spy. Or am I giving LSU too much credit after their season opening debacle?

Let’s hear some arguments, pro and con.

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