Iowa vs. Iowa State Football Preview
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m.
TV: FOX – Jason Benetti, Brock Huard, and Allison Williams
Last Meeting: Iowa State defeated Iowa 10-7 in Iowa City.
The Weather: Partly sunny skies. Temps around 80 with winds around 10 mph.
The Line: Iowa is a 4 point favorite.
History: Iowa holds a 46-23 edge in the overall series between the in-state rivals. The Hawkeyes have also won five straight games played at Jack Trice Stadium. Iowa is 21-8 in games played in Ames. Kirk Ferentz is 13-10 against Iowa State and he had guided Iowa to wins in 10 of the last 14 games in the series. Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is 1-6 against Iowa.
THE BREAKDOWN
Iowa rush offense vs. Iowa State rush defense
Kirk Ferentz had said all of fall camp that he felt the Hawkeye offensive line and the running game was going to be improved. One week in, it looked a whole lot like the last two years. Iowa had 36 rushing attempts against Utah State and could only muster up 88 yards on the ground. That included one Kaleb Johnson run for 21 yards, so take that out and it’s well below the already low 2.4 yards per carry. Iowa used three backs with Johnson and Leshon Williams got the bulk of the work. Johnson had 63 yards in the opener and Williams had 16 yards rushing.
The Iowa State defense did a very good job against Northern Iowa. They held the Panthers to 106 yards on the ground and 2.9 yards per carry. Beau Freyler, Tyler Onyedim, and Myles Purchase led the Cyclones in tackles with seven each. Onyedim had 1.5 tackles for loss in the opener. Defensive tackle J.R. Singleton is a key player up front as well as far as stuffing the run. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO IOWA STATE
Iowa pass offense vs. Iowa State pass defense
It was a magical start for Cade McNamara as the starting quarterback for the Hawkeyes. His first pass was completed for a 36 yard touchdown to Seth Anderson. His second drive resulted in a touchdown pass to former Michigan teammate Erick All. Basically, those first two drives were magical. Overall, McNamara completed 18 of 33 passes for 196 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
One interesting stat from this past week was McNamara’s expected completion percentage was 74% based on drops. He also probably had a least one more touchdown taken off the table. His favorite targets were the tight ends. He found Luke Lachey and All combined for 10 receptions for 88 yards. Oddly, McNamara only completed four passes to wide receivers with two each to Nico Ragaini and Anderson. One would expect McNamara to look towards his other wide receivers like Diante Vine and Kaleb Brown this week.
The Cyclones started with a bang defending the pass. Jeremiah Cooper picked off a pair of passes, including one that he returned for a score. He played well in this one and the Cyclones broke up a total of seven passes. T.J. Tampa and Myles Purchase are excellent in coverage situations.
Iowa State also got after it in the pass rush in Sunday. They posted seven sacks in the game. Overall they allowed 17 completions on 35 passes for 173 yards and a late touchdown pass. Iowa State seems pretty strong in coverage, but Iowa thinks they can move the ball in the air. ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Iowa State rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense
It was kind of a strange rushing game last week for the Cyclones. They scored 30 points, but they only rushed for 134 yards. However, they did average an impressive five yards per carry. Iowa State played three backs with Cartevious Norton leading the way. He had 11 rushes for 49 yards. Abu Sama was effective with 6 rushes for 40 yards and Eli Sanders had their only rushing touchdown on five carries for 13 yards.
Iowa was once again very strong against the run on defense. Although in the opener they did allow 116 yards and 4.8 yards per carry, the Hawkeyes pretty much controlled Utah State on the ground. Leading Iowa’s tacklers in this game was Jay Higgins with 16 stops. He was very strong in the run game. Cooper DeJean was second in tackles for the Hawkeyes with seven. Sebastian Castro had a pair of tackles for loss and Aaron Graves had one. This feels like Iowa will play a strong game in limiting the ground game of the Cyclones. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO IOWA
Iowa State pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense
The Iowa State passing attack had two quarterbacks completing passes in the opening win. Rocco Becht started the game for the Cyclones and completed 10 of 13 throws for 113 yards and a pair of scores. True freshman J.J. Kohl saw limited duty and completed 4 of 5 passes for three yards.
Jaylin Nolen was expected to be their top receiver this season and he had four receptions for just six yards in the game. Tight end Benjamin Brahmer had the longest pass play with a 36 yard touchdown reception. Starting tight end Easton Dean had three receptions for 21 yards.
Iowa played their normal bend, but don’t break type defense last week. They couldn’t get to the quarterback because he was delivering the ball quickly, but the Hawkeyes still played very solid football.
Xavier Nwankpa had the only interception last week and Deontae Craig had the only sack. The Hawkeyes did have four passes broken up and four quarterback hurries. My expectation is that Iowa will play more aggressively in terms of pressures this week with some different formations that will generate more pressure and they will try to confuse the young quarterbacks. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO IOWA
Special Teams
It was a bit of a strange adventure for Tory Taylor in the opening game of the season. He had a punt tipped/blocked with a nice roll that saved his average in week on. He averaged 48.7 yards per punt, including three of the punts inside the 20 yard line. Drew Stevens made his only field goal attempt. Kaleb Johnson had an outstanding kickoff return to open the game for 54 yards. Cooper DeJean had two punt returns for three yards.
Iowa State has a very good punter as well Tyler Perkins averaged 53 yards, with a long of 70 yards. Chase Contreraz handles the field goal kicking duties. He made his only attempt and it was a long one from 56 yards. Jaylin Noel did an excellent job with punt returns, averaging 30 yards per in the opener. Myles Purchase does the return work on kickoffs. ADVANTAGE: PUSH
THE LAST CALL
Last week was an appetizer. This week is clearly a main course. It’s for the Cy-Hawk Trophy and bragging rights as Iowa travels to Ames looking for their sixth straight win at the home of the Cyclones. It’s really pretty incredible that Iowa has won five straight at Jack Trice Stadium given that Iowa State has been a solid program.
It is worth noting that Iowa will be trying to reacquire the Cy-Hawk Trophy after losing it last year in Iowa City in a very ugly 10-7 loss to the Cyclones. One thing I can say with great confidence is that Iowa is very motivated going into Saturday’s game. They have heard about losing this game for a year.
A couple of keys from my perspective. Phil Parker has taken advantage of young quarterbacks over the years. He’s one of the best defensive coordinators for a reason and I think we will see that at times in this game. Parker played it pretty vanilla this past weekend. That won’t be the case on Saturday. Look for some wrinkles coming to the pass rush.
The goal will be to create some turnovers and I think that’s likely to happen here.
On the flip side, having an experienced quarterback like Cade McNamara should pay off in this contest. Now, it is worth noting that he’s not fully healthy. But, he’s played in major and significant road environments in his career. He’s also played in huge games. That is something you can’t replicate. He’s built for these type of moments.
Iowa is going to have to get their ground game going. They also need to find their wide receivers more than they did last week. I have heard they feel like they have some shots at big plays and I suspect we will see them try to get the ball down the field.
Having said all that, you might think, Iowa blowout, right? No. Not even close. This one will be a white knuckle ride. Turnovers will be the key. Iowa wins that battle and pulls out a 17-10 win. My pick to click this week is Diante Vines. He gets a touchdown reception in the win.
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