BOL staff predictions for Alabama vs. Texas

Alabama football is gearing up for its second game of the 2023 season on Saturday night with a home matchup against the Texas Longhorns. Unlike last week, Vegas is predicting this one to be a quality back and forth between the two teams. According to VegasInsider, the Crimson Tide are currently favored by seven points at home.

Last year, things came down the wire with Alabama narrowly escaping Austin with a 20-19 victory. Below, the entire BamaOnLine staff give our best guess on score predictions to go along with a brief look at our reasoning. There’s also a bold prediction for this Saturday’s game that will follow all the score predictions, so read along and then give us your predictions.

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Tim Watts, Publisher

Not sure you will find many games more anticipated than this one, and the Bama fans will be the most excited. Interesting matchup with playmakers on both sides of the football. A young Alabama team has to see this as a chance to get their swagger back.

Score prediction: Alabama 31, Texas 26

Andrew Bone, Senior Recruiting Editor

This may end up as the most watched game in college football season and it should provide plenty of fireworks throughout the night. The stadium will have an electric feel, and the Tide’s defense will have to step up with big plays thought out the night. Jalen Milroe and the offense should do enough to pull away with the win in the home environment.

Score prediction: Alabama 34, Texas 27

Travis Reier, Senior Analyst

All about legs for UA in this one. Jalen Milroe supplements the run game on a night when yards on the ground are hard to come by; linebacker Deontae Lawson and safety Caleb Downs make plays all over the field; and Will Reichard bangs home a couple of key field goals.

Score prediction: Alabama 0, Texas 0

Charlie Potter, Senior Team Writer

I’m excited for this one. This is my 10th season at BOL, and I’ve never covered a home game against a Power 5 opponent from out of conference. The atmosphere before and during the game should be electric and what makes college football so great, and I think we’re in for an entertaining matchup. For Alabama, it’s going to need to keep Texas’ receivers in check and get pressure on Quinn Ewers. If its defensive backs are healthy, I think it can do that, but we won’t know that until much closer to kickoff. Offensively, if Jalen Milroe can take care of the ball and keep making plays down the field, the Crimson Tide wins this one.

Score prediction: Alabama 32, Texas 24

Jimmy Stein, Team Expert

Last year’s game was a nail-biter. And just when they’ve grown back, they’re gone again. There will be a lot of talent on the field. Expect Alabama’s ground game to lead the way, especially on the strength of their quarterback’s legs and the Longhorns will keep pace via the big play. In some ways, this may simply be a Xavier Worthy vs. Jalen Milroe highlight show.

Will Reichard’s kick split the uprights in Austin and the Tide pulled it out. This sequel may look a lot like the original.

Score prediction: Alabama 27, Texas 24

Joseph Hastings, Recruiting Analyst

Alabama’s success in this game will likely hinge on the production of quarterback Jalen Milroe. The redshirt sophomore was sensational against Middle Tennessee – a Conference USA program – but how will he look in his first true test in the post-Bryce Young era? Last year against Texas A&M, Milroe showed flashes of brilliance, though it was somewhat marred by three total turnovers (two fumbles and an interception).

Bama wins this game behind a power rushing attack that is spearheaded by Milroe and Jase McClellan, with timely completions by their quarterback. Getting into a shootout with the Longhorns would be a gamble, in my opinion; keeping Quinn Ewers, Xavier Worthy, and Company cool on the sidelines while Alabama imposes their will in the trenches could be the key to success here.

Score prediction: Alabama 27, Texas 20

Clint Lamb, Staff Writer

I decided to combine my score prediction with my bold prediction this week. Why? Well, because my score prediction is a bold prediction. I’ll explain.

Texas is a really good team on paper. In fact, they’re a Playoff-caliber team when you combine the roster, coaching staff and rest-of-season schedule. Even if the Longhorns were to lose to Alabama on Saturday, it’s still possible that they could make the postseason by winning out and earning a Big 12 title in their final season with the conference. But in some ways, Saturday’s game feels a lot like the 2016 Peach Bowl against Washington.

People forget, but that was a really, really good team on paper.

UW had a top-tier college QB in Jake Browning, who ranked second nationally in TD passes (43). They also had a future NFL RB in Myles Gaskin, who posted over 1,500 yards and double-digit scores. John Ross and Dante Pettis were Day 1-2 NFL draft picks who were elite college wide receivers. They had Drew Sample, a future second-round pick in 2019, as one of their tight ends. Oh, and three of their five starting OL are still in the league, including first-round pick Kaleb McGary.

Defensively, five and the 11 starters were future Day 1-2 draft picks. I mean, just look at this group:

DL Vita Vea (Round 1)CB Sidney Jones (2)CB Kevin King (2)S Budda Baker (2)S Taylor Rapp (2)

Plus, you had other future NFL players in defensive linemen Greg Gaines (4) and Elijah Qualls (6), as well as linebacker Ben Burr-Kirven (5). Linebacker Azeez Victor was also a part of that 2016 squad, but he wasn’t able to play in the game due to injury. My point here? This team was loaded with NFL talent. Plus, you had one of the most innovative offensive minds leading the way in head coach Chris Petersen.

Now, let’s look at that game from Alabama’s side of things.

Who was the starting quarterback? A dual-threat in Jalen Hurts who was limited as a passer (only completed 50% of his 14 attempts for 57 yards in that Peach Bowl). You also had a deep stable of running backs to go with Hurts in Damien Harris, Bo Scarbrough and Josh Jacobs. You had a mistmatch at tight end in OJ Howard. The offensive line was starting a freshman tackle in Jonah Williams, as well as projected first-round pick (at the time) at the other tackle spot in veteran Cam Robinson. Plus, the weak link of the OL — according to some — was at right guard with Korren Kirven.

On defense, you had a first-round cornerback (Marlon Humphrey) along with a generational defensive back (Minkah Fitzpatrick) leading the way for a secondary that also included multiple other NFL talents. There were two effective pass rushers on the edges in Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson. You had a do-it-all, rangy off-ball linebacker in Reuben Foster playing next to a converted outside linebacker in Rashaan Evans. I mean, that side of the football was loaded, too.

Does all of this sound familiar?

Massive DL for opposing teamPetersen = Steve SarkisianHurts = Jalen MilroeDeep RB stableHoward = Amari NiblackWilliams = Kadyn ProctorRobinson = JC LathamKirven = Darrian DalcourtHumphrey = Kool-Aid McKinstryFitzpatrick = Caleb DownsWilliams/Anderson = Turner/BraswellFoster = Deontae LawsonEvans = Jihaad Campbell (maybe)

Washington brought size and physicality with its defensive front.

The starting four upfront averaged 313 pounds with a 321-pound Qualls even playing out on the edge. Going into that Peach Bowl, the Huskies had fielded a top-20 run defense who also ranked No. 8 in scoring defense. None of that mattered once Alabama got things going with Scarbrough. Despite a slow start that saw Washington take an early 7-0 lead, the Crimson Tide eventually got things churning with their ground game.

By game’s end, the offense had rushed 269 yards and two scores with Scarbrough accounting for most of that production (180 yards and two scores). Plus, the defense chipped in by holding the Huskies to only 194 total yards of offense and seven points while racking up five sacks, two interceptions, a fumble recovery and a defensive touchdown. The final score read 24-7 with the Tide heading to Tampa to play Clemson for a national title.

Now, there are some noteworthy differences between that game and what we’re expecting on Saturday. Most notably, the defensive line. That 2016 DL group had elite NFL talent all over the place. You had Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Dalvin Tomlinson. Those guys are a big reason for Washington having to be one-dimensional.

Despite having an elite runner in Gaskin, the Huskies only mustered 44 yards on 29 carries. That forced everything onto Browning’s shoulders, and he didn’t respond very well. He barely completed 50% of his passes for only 150 yards, which equates to a 3.9-yard average. Plus, he was responsible for both interceptions. Due to subperb performances from Alabama’s defense and run game, Hurts was able to average only 4.1 yards per pass attempt with zero touchdowns and still win the game by more than two scores.

Now, I’m not saying Milroe is going to play bad on Saturday. Not even close. What I am doing is pointing to an example of how you can take pressure off your quarterback. Georgia did it plenty for Stetson Bennett in 2021, and Alabama did it a lot for Hurts back in 2016. On paper, Texas is one of the top teams in the country. They’re loaded with quality talent, but just like in that 2016 Peach Bowl, I’m predicting the run game and defense do enough to make this a sizable victory for the Crimson Tide.

Alabama will put up more than 24 points because Milroe won’t be limited to just 107 yards of offense. Texas, on the other hand will also out-perform seven points we saw out of Washington because 1) Alabama isn’t as elite up front defensively and 2) Ewers is a more naturally gifted quarterback — with a few more weapons — than Browning. But in the end, I’m still predicting a double-digit win for the Tide. After initially going 31-23, I’m flipping another field from the Texas side over to Alabama.

Score prediction: Alabama 34, Texas 20

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