Tennessee vs. Virginia — The picks are in
Finally, football is back as Tennessee takes on Virginia in Nashville Saturday at noon est. Tennessee is coming off an 11 win 2022 campaign while the Cavaliers were 3-7 a year ago in a season shortened by the tragic shooting on campus.
How will things go for the Vols in the Music City? The Volquest staff weighs in with their weekly picks.
Brent’s pick
First games are unique is that there’s so much build up and so many unknowns.
In this game, Virginia has a lot more unknowns than Tennessee does. The Cavs are replacing 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line. They have a new quarterback, some transfer receivers and a transfer tailback as well.
Last year was a serious struggle offensively for Tony Elliott’s team. They could not run the ball effectively. The result is they lost time of possession by 5 minutes a game.
I still don’t think Virginia’s offense has arrived under Elliott and with al the newness I think there are growing pains.
Defensively, Virginia was salty last year and that’s what kept them in games, but frankly they didn’t play any kind of offense like Tennessee’s. The best offense they played was North Carolina who scored 31 points against them.
I think Virginia’s defensive front seven can cause some issues for the Vols on the offensive front early which means Tennessee will have to remain patient and get settled in.
Tennessee’s defense thinks they are pretty good. If they truly play as many bodies as they say they will then the Vols should be the aggressor all afternoon long.
The belief in the Tennessee program is at a place we haven’t seen in a while and I don’t think Virginia has that kind of belief in themselves.
I like Tennessee on a relaxing week one.
Tennessee 41
Virginia 13
Austin’s pick
I’ve said all week that you can’t judge this team based off of this game, one way or the other. Let’s face it last year, who would’ve predicted that the team that barely got passed Pittsburgh in their third string quarterback, was going to turn around and soundly beat LSU on the road, Alabama at home and go and beat Clemson in the Orange Bowl? Not I! All that said, and it’s still going to be better if you win this game going away, instead of a narrow 7 to 14 point win.
Joe Milton has done everything they have asked him to do since he became the starter at the end of last year. He has incredible weapons around him on offense and for me it boils down to projections and decision making. Virginia has a good and experienced group on the defensive line but I think Tennessee will hold up pretty well in this one.
Defensively is where I am most excited to see the growth in the program. They are so much deeper than they were a year ago and frankly way more talented. I still worry about where they are at safety, and the depth of their but I don’t believe it will factor in this game.
Tennessee 45 Virginia 20
Grant’s pick
No offense to Virginia, but based on ESPN’s analytics, the Cavaliers are basically Vanderbilt. ESPN’s Football Power Index has UVA at No. 76 and the ‘Dores at No. 81. ESPN’s SP+ ratings has Virginia at No. 76, too, and Vandy five spots ahead at No. 71.
So … based on the numbers, the 2023 regular-schedule is starting the way the 2022 regular-season ended at Vanderbilt. And we all remember Tennessee’s 56-0 runaway the last time the Vols were in Nashville. When they ran for roughly 6,000 yards against Vandy, including roughly 12 rushing touchdowns that went for 80 or more yards. At least it felt that way.
Obviously this is a new season and this is a different team. But a lot of familiar faces are back, alongside some key additions, and to me it’s important Tennessee looks the part from Week 1. Against Virginia there needs to be no questions asked after the game kicks off. Tennessee is the better team and needs to show it from the start.
Joe Milton III needs to look like the Joe Milton III his coaches and teammates have talked so much about during training camp. Jaylen Wright needs to be the dude that has impressed everyone during the preseason. Dont’e Thornton needs to be the freaky combination of speed and size that has Tennessee coaches so excited to plug him into this offense. The new-look offensive line needs to do its part, regardless of who is playing where.
And maybe most importantly, a defense that is deeper as a whole and a year older and more experienced at multiple positions needs to look the part, too, and take an expected step forward. Virginia’s offense is ranked No. 120 (out of 132) in ESPN’s SP+ numbers. Tennessee’s defense enters the season ranked No. 32. The Vols need to make a statement on defense in this one and set the tone for things to come.
Tennessee 56, Virginia 13
Eric’s pick
Openers are always kind of funky. We think we know everything there is to know about ‘our team’ but they will still find ways to surprise you the first time out. Virgina is horrible offensively on paper, but it’s pretty much a personnel overhaul – so who is to say it can’t be better than anything it showed a season ago?
Well, for starters, it’s game one and week one and I don’t think Virginia will be comfortable offensively the entire day. That doesn’t mean Tennessee will be a finished product, but the Vols have veterans all over the place with plenty of ‘third year in the system’ guys on defense. Give me the defense to be a major storyline come Saturday evening and all day Sunday during our recaps. The Vols will put pressure on Tony Muskett in his first game at the FBS level and force him into bad decisions behind a poor offensive line.
Offensively, let’s see what Joe can do. I feel as if the Vols will run well with Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small and I think we are all excited to see these wide receivers get after it. We’ve said pretty much all there is to say about this team and Virginia. It’s time to go and play.
Give me the Vols to roll in this one in what will basically be a home game with the Big Orange faithful going strong.
Tennessee 47, Virginia 17
Matt’s pick
Tennessee went on the road last fall and found a way to down Pitt in week 2. But let’s be honest, even after that game, I don’t think anyone predicted the run that would ensue for the next few weeks. As wild as it was, Tennessee had stability at certain key positions to make it happen.
The Vols won’t find themselves in that same kind of dog fight in Nashville, but like any football team to start the season, they will have kinks to work out with new pieces in place across the board. While the potential and excitement is there, some new faces are going to have to make big plays this fall.
I expect an emotional Virginia team to come out of the gates swinging and use whatever they have in the playbook to try and hang around early. But still, it won’t be enough.
Once Tennesseee settles in and that initial emotion wears down, the Vols are the far superior team talent wise, and that will take over. The offense is going to score points, but I am most excited to see what kind of strides the defense has made. While it probably won’t be the biggest factor on Saturday, there is new depth at multiple key positions on Tim Banks’ unit, which will be vital down the stretch as they work toward becoming a more polished product.
I expect to see a lot of guys get playing time in this one, and Tennessee to roll down the stretch in front of a sold out crowd at Nissan Stadium.
Tennessee 52, Virginia 17
Rob’s pick
There’s a reason Tennessee is a four touchdown favorite in this game, mainly because Tennessee averaged more points than any team in college football last season and Virginia had a hard time scoring at all.
Sure, Tennessee’s personnel is different, most notably at quarterback, but Josh Heupel’s offenses always score points and the bet here is that the 2023 Vols won’t be an exception. Joe Milton will need to pick up where he left off when we last saw him in the Orange Bowl, which, based off all the buzz around the Vols’ fall camp, seems likely.
There is some uncertainty up front with Cooper Mays seemingly out and the line likely having to shuffle around some to accommodate his absence. If Ollie Lane indeed gets the start at center he’s going to have a ton of responsibility. This will be a challenge for an offensive line that is starting the season with something to prove. Virginia was very solid defensively in 2022 and brings back six starters from last year’s front seven.
Offensively Virginia was a mess last season and that was with a multi-year starter at quarterback. Now the Cavs are breaking in a new starter under center, Tony Musket, who transferred from FCS Monmouth. The chore of breaking in a new quarterback is complicated by the fact that Virginia lost its top four receivers from last year’s offense.
There are question marks up front on the line as well. This is an offense that averaged an ACC worst 17 ppg last fall. It’s hard to see how they’re going to be a lot better in ’23.
Defensively Virginia has experience up front but they’re going to be without their most dynamic playmaker, edge Chico Bennett who led the team with 7.0 sacks last fall. There are also new starters at corner, which could be something to keep an eye on.
Maybe I’m selling Virginia short, but I just don’t see this one being close. In the simplest terms, too much offense for Tennessee, not enough for Virginia.
Tennessee 59
Virginia 17
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