What to watch for against the Rice Owls

When JFK asked “why does Rice play Texas?” he meant it to be inspirational, but as media companies have taken greater control over the game of college football, it’s borne out to be a question without a great answer.

Inspirational underdog stories in which the underdog is pummeled into a pulp every time doesn’t make for great television.

I have a Texas alumni pal who loves watching games like this where the Longhorns just boat race their opponent, but ratings suggest he’s not all that common. What makes this game more watchable for Texas fans is the fact it’s the first chance to see one of the most hyped Longhorn teams in over a decade the week before they play in what will be one of the more hyped non-conference games of the last decade.

When you’re taking in the 2023 ‘Horns during their inevitable drubbing of the Owls, here’s what you should watch for as indicators of how close this team really is to beating Alabama and putting together a big run.

Quinn Ewers vs Owl obfuscation

The Owls play a hybrid 4-2-5 defense (can also play like a 3-3-5) built primarily around disguise. They’re not going to stop a team of Texas’ caliber playing straight, they need to discourage runs and encourage throws into unexpected coverages. The ideal outcome for Rice’s defense on a given play is for the offense to call or check into a pass with the quarterback misidentifying the coverage pre-snap and then dropping back and finding a different picture than expected.

Such as presenting a single-high coverage with a safety positioned to fire into the box only to bail both safeties back at the snap.

In that event, a number of things can go wrong for the offense and it’s not about pure execution. The quarterback may lose his timing and rhythm or otherwise fail to find the open man in his progression due to the sudden change in the picture. He may hold the ball too long and give the pass-rush a chance to flush or even catch him. Perhaps the quarterback just drops back and throws into Cover 2 without ever realizing the safety who appeared to be an extra box defender has actually bailed deep and gets picked.

Now the obvious solution for Texas is to play a fair amount of 12 personnel and just bully the Owls, making their defensive schemery (fittingly) academic. Steve Sarkisian will aim higher though and use this game to test and develop Quinn Ewers as well as his own tactics for setting up knockout blows with the 2023 personnel.

Expect to see Texas mix in different formations and motions designed to try and manipulate the Owl defense, set up kill shots for Ewers, and ultimately test the team’s ability to execute while live bullets are flying.

Ownership of the middle of the field

Rice has three weapons on offense of any particular concern to the Longhorns. Listed in order of the danger they present…

Slot receiver Luke McCaffreyTight end Jack BradleyTight end Trey Phillippi

The first two really come into play with Rice’s passing game, which mixes play-action passing and dropback progression schemes from spread formations. Bradley is the Rice version of JT Sanders. He has a very similar role (Y tight end in 11 personnel, H-back in 12, routinely flexes out) and is pretty effective in each phase, if grading on a curve.

Some of Rice’s more dangerous schemes on a normal week would involve playing in empty formations that flex Bradley and McCaffrey into slot alignments where they have to be covered by linebackers. That could be an interesting test for Texas’ new linebacker and safety starters, although it’d more likely become a referendum on the Owls’ pass protection.

McCaffrey is also dangerous running option routes down the field on various shots, often play-action passes where new Owl quarterback JT Daniels will have seven or eight bodies protecting him. Those will be a nice test of Texas’ effectiveness in coverage early in the year.

Phillippi is a jumbo tight end the Owls bring in when they want to play Stanford smashmouth ball. He’s listed at 6-foot-5, 280 pounds and if they decide to alternate carefully scripted shots to McCaffrey with steady runs to use up clock, Phillippi is a useful piece.

Texas’ run defense at positions like Buck (Ethan Burke), Will linebacker (David Gbenda don’t break), and Sam linebacker (Anthony Hill) will get their best tests when Rice gets into bigger personnel groups and try to just power the ball off-tackle behind big bodies. Alternatively, if Rice gets into power sets and Hill takes the field, can Texas avoid the Owls going spread from bigger sets and hunting Hill with McCaffrey?

The cornerback battles will also get some useful film based on who’s able to stick on McCaffrey when he’s running something fancy off play-action.

Effort and buy-in

It’s going to be insanely hot on the field at DKR Memorial stadium. Texas is going to be able to get a lot of kids involved, early and later, due to the level of competition and the fact they’ll need to in order to keep everyone safe and rested in the extreme heat.

This game film will be very useful for the staff for review the film for overall errors, focus, and which guys were willing to play for a job in the heat. Rice will bring some complexity, if not particularly athletic talent, on either side of the ball and the guys who didn’t bother to do their homework on how their assignments work against the Owls will stand out. As will players who aren’t really interested in fighting for a spot in the heat against the Rice in garbage time.

For fans, it’ll be apparent if particular players come off the bench looking to make their mark in burnt orange or if the starters are slow to get going or slow down as things progress. Everyone knows the season really starts Week 2 in Tuscaloosa and Rice is basically a tune-up scrimmage. Tune-ups are important though.

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