Kyle Huesmann’s Iowa Football Season Prediction

The college football season is upon us. Week Zero kicks off tomorrow with seven games, including #13 Notre Dame vs Navy and San Jose State vs #6 USC. Our favorite time of the year is back. Meanwhile, Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes have to wait another week to get underway with their season.

It has been a long offseason for the Hawkeyes after they had the #2 defense in the country in terms of points per game, but finished the regular season 7-5 due to an offense that ranked 123rd in the country in points per game. That led to a lot of criticism in the direction of offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz. Over the offseason the coaching staff added several offensive players from the transfer portal, including Michgan QB Cade McNamara, Charleston Southern WR Seth Anderson, Ohio State WR Kaleb Brown, Michigan TE Erick All and Miami Oh RG Rusty Feth.

Now, the expectation is that the offense sees marked improvement, the defense continues to be one of the best in the country and that the Hawkeyes find themselves in the hunt for a trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game. Finally, it’s time to put the offseason talk to the side and actually see some games take place on the field.

There are a decent amount of Iowa fans out there thinking that Cade McNamara and Co. are going to save the universe and lead the Hawkeyes to a Big Ten Title Game appearance. Maybe so. I believe that the offense will show signs of improvement. Will that improvement lead to a matchup against a Big Ten East opponent at Lucas Oil Stadium in December? We will have to wait and see on that.

Anyway, lets get to the good stuff. Here is my game-by-game prediction for the 2023-24 Iowa Football season.

September 2nd – vs Utah State Aggies

Blake Anderson was a great coach at Arkansas State and led Utah State to the MWC Title Game during his first year in 2021, but took a step back with a 6-7 season a year ago. The Aggies do return starting QB Cooper Legas and WR Terrell Vaughn, but rank 83rd in % of offensive yards returning, 114th in % of tackles returning and 123rd in offensive line starts returning. That spells bad news for USU in the season opener at Kinnick against an elite defense.

Prediction: WIN (1-0)

September 9th – at Iowa State Cyclones

Matt Campbell finally broke through and won the Cy-Hawk Game in his seventh try as head coach of the Cyclones. The Hawkeyes got better over the offseason, while the Cyclones ended up losing three starters, including QB Hunter Dekkers during the gambling probe. Iowa State hasn’t won at Jack Trice in the series since 2011. The Clones offense will struggle against the Hawkeye defense and the Cy-Hawk trophy will travel back to Iowa City.

Prediction: WIN (2-0)

September 16th – vs Western Michigan Broncos

This isn’t the Western Michigan of the past that has went 47-24 in MAC play over the last nine seasons. The Broncos finished 5-7 last season and return just ten total starters. WMU loses their top two rushers, top receiver and their top seven tacklers. It appears that first year head coach Lance Taylor has a rebuild ahead of him and facing one of the top defenses in the country will not be helpful.

Prediction: WIN (3-0)

September 23rd – at #7 Penn State Nittany Lions

This is the toughest game on the Hawkeyes schedule. It’s set to be the Nittany Lions White Out game, which means Beaver Stadium is going to be rocking with 105,000+ fans. I’ve heard a lot of good things about new PSU quarterback Drew Allar and if all of that is true, they have the running backs, wide receivers and the offensive line to have a very good offense. Defensively, they have the best linebacker group in the conference and a secondary that is right there with the one Phil Parker puts on the field. Hawkeyes take their first loss of the season in a closely contested, four quarter battle.

Prediction: LOSS (3-1)

September 30th – vs Michigan State Spartans

Not many people thought hiring Mel Tucker was a good decision when Michigan State did it, but it was hard to argue with it after they went 11-2 in his first season. Last year, the Spartans luck ran out with a 5-7 record and frankly, they had too much talent to have that bad of a record. A bunch of that talent is gone, with Payton Thorne, Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed all moving on to new schools. Hawkeyes win this game at home pretty easily and bounce back from the loss in State College.

Prediction: WIN (4-1)

October 7th – vs Purdue Boilermakers

The Boilermakers have won four of the last six games against the Hawkeyes, but this time around there is no Rondale Moore, no David Bell, no Charlie Jones and no Jeff Brohm to worry about. I think Purdue has sufficiently upset the Hawkeyes and last year’s 24-3 win was a sign that they were about done with the Boilers. They did bring in some intriguing transfers, including Texas QB Hudson Card and Marshall WR Corey Gammage, but it won’t be enough to take down Iowa at Kinnick under first year head coach Ryan Walters.

Prediction: WIN (5-1)

October 14th – at #19 Wisconsin Badgers

I went back-and-forth on this game a couple of times. I like Luke Fickell and the idea of bringing in Phil Longo as the new offensive coordinator. Braelon Allen is a stud at running back and they should be, once again, pretty solid on the defensive end. The big matchup here will be the Badgers wide receivers against the one of the best secondaries in the country. The Hawkeye defense leads the country over the last ten years in interceptions and Wisconsin is going to be passing more than they used to. Cooper DeJean grabs a couple of big INT’s and Iowa comes away with a huge Big Ten West road win.

Prediction: WIN (6-1)

October 21st – vs Minnesota Golden Gophers

Kirk Ferentz has dominated this series, having won 18 of the last 22 meetings, including a 6-0 record since PJ Fleck took over as head coach of the Gophers. The Minnesota defense was actually one of the best in the country last year. They return six starters from that group, including Justin Walley and Tyler Nubin in the secondary. However, the big question is quarterback and offensive line. I’m not sure Athan Kaliakmanis is the answer behind center and the OLine is 108th in starts returning. Floyd of Rosedale takes the short trip over to Kinnick from the practice facility to watch, but returns back to the Hansen Football Performance Center for a ninth straight year.

Prediction: WIN (7-1)

November 4th – vs Northwestern Wildcats (Wrigley Field)

Northwestern has dealt with a lot over the last 12 months. They lost their last 11 games of the season last year and now Pat Fitzgerald is out after 17 years as head coach of the program. Quarterback play was pretty bad, as four guys combined for ten touchdowns and 16 interceptions, but Ben Bryant transferred in from Cincinnati. The defense returns seven starters, but allowed 30+ points seven times last year. This just isn’t your normal Wildcats team that has given the Hawkeyes fits in the past. Iowa forces a couple turnovers and wins comfortably at Wrigley Field.

Prediction: WIN (8-1)

November 11th – vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is just the fourth all-time meeting between Rutgers and Iowa, but the Hawkeyes have outscored the Scarlet Knights 71-17 in the three previous meeting, including 27-10 in Piscataway last season. The Rutgers defense hasn’t played badly in the last two meetings, but the Iowa defense has just been better. Expect the same this year. The Hawkeye defense picks off a couple of passes due to shaky RU quarterback play and Iowa takes care of business by 17-21 points.

Prediction: WIN (9-1)

November 18th – vs Illinois Fighting Illini

I’ve felt it since early last season. I get the feeling that Bret Bielema is going to make Illinois a competitive team year in and year out. The Illini finished with an 8-5 record last season and they return enough pieces to be a threat once again in 2023. A lot will depend on the transition from Tommy DeVito to Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer at quarterback, but three of their top four receivers return and some really good guys are still on the defensive side of the ball. I went back-and-forth on this game too, but the Hawkeyes have gone undefeated at home just once since 2004. This will be their lone home loss.

Prediction: LOSS (9-2)

November 24th – at Nebraska Cornhuskers (Friday)

It has been tough sledding for the Huskers over the last, well all of Scott Frost’s tenure, but they took down Iowa in the season finale for the first time since 2014. Now, Matt Rhule is the new head coach in Lincoln and Nebraska fans are thinking 2023 is the year that they break through, make a bowl game and win 7-8 games. I’m not entirely sure that Georgia Tech transfer Jeff Sims is going to be good enough at quarterback to make up for a defense that allowed 27.6 ppg last year. Hawkeyes get the win to close out the season with a 10-2 record.

Prediction: WIN (10-2)

Final Thoughts

The Hawkeyes are headed to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game. The Hawkeyes win over Wisconsin proves to be the difference, as the Badgers lose to Ohio State, giving them two losses. Illinois’ win over Iowa gives them a shot going into the final week of the season, but three losses in their first six Big Ten games proves to be too much.

As for a bowl game, the Big Ten East could be looking at three teams in the New Year’s Six Bowls, which would give Iowa a shot at the Citrus Bowl for the second time in three years or the newly named ReliaQuest Bowl, which is just the Outback Bowl in a disguised name. Either of those bowl games means a matchup against an SEC opponent (no not Kentucky again). Currently, the projections have Ole Miss, Tennessee or Texas A&M filling that slot. A 10-2 year, with a potential trip to Indianapolis and a bowl matchup against an SEC team not named Kentucky, LSU or Florida? I think almost everyone would sign up for that right now.

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