Kansas State opponent preview: UCF
The statistics used to learn more about Kansas State opponents are via footballoutsiders.com, bcftoys.com, collegefootballdata.com and stats.ncaa.org. ksu_FAN will begin to take a glance at each team on the K-State schedule this year, and we have arrived at the first league game of the season.
Learning more about Kansas State opponent: UCF
LAST FIVE GAMES: The only previous meeting between the two sides was a 17-13 Kansas State victory in 2010.
2022 RECORD: 9-5 overall, 6-2 in the American Athletic Conference (2nd)
WINS: UCF defeated the same Tulane team (12-2, No. 22) that went to Manhattan and beat Big 12 champion K-State, 38-31. However, the Green Wave returned the favor by 17 points in the AAC Championship Game. The Knights had a nice win over fellow new Big 12 member Cincinnati (9-4, No. 40) and solid victories against 7-6 Memphis (No. 47) and 7-6 SMU (No. 56)
LOSSES: In a bit of a head-scratcher, UCF fell to No. 63 East Carolina and No. 77 Navy. They were also tripped up by Duke in the Military Bowl.
Head coach Gus Malzahn has led the Knights to 18 wins in his two seasons, including being 11-5 in the AAC. Before that, he was 67-35 at Auburn with an SEC title. That is where he won at least eight games in six of his eight seasons and finished ranked in five of them.
He is at the helm of a UCF program that has a strong recent history.
In the last 18 seasons, the Knights have won at least eight games 12 times and finished with a double-digit number of wins in six of those seasons. They have advanced to 14 bowls in that time span, including seven straight and in 10 of the last 11 seasons.
Five times they have finished the season ranked in the last 13 seasons, and that consists of a pair of top 10 finishes as well. That track record is what helped them be in position to make the move to the Big 12 and join the likes of Kansas State.
2022 Numbers
UCF finished the season ranked No. 42 in the F+ as a result of an offense that ranked No. 39 and a defense that concluded the year at No. 52.
The rushing offense was the strength and ranked No. 9 in rushing yards per game, No. 13 in predicted points added and No. 17 in success rate. The Knights scored 2.63 points per drive (No. 33), 32.9 points per game (No. 30) and ranked No. 20 in overall success rate but were just No. 103 in explosiveness.
They catch a K-State defense that has many pieces to replace at an early time in the year.
Defensively, they were solid in rushing success rate allowed (No. 32) and passing efficiency (No. 40), but UCF ranked No. 55 or worse in most other metrics, including No. 59 in points per drive and No. 105 in explosiveness allowed. Kansas State could give them fits.
Their special teams unit finished No. 40 with really good punt coverage (No. 25), field goal efficiency (No. 37) and kickoff coverage (No. 48).
Preseason accolades
Malzahn’s group is picked 8th in the league for their inaugural Big 12 season. They are also No. 33 in the country in Kelly Ford’s preseason ranking and No. 35 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ (No. 37 on offense and No. 36 on defense). College Football News has the Knights at No. 46 and Athlon slots them at No. 53.
UCF returns six defensive starters and three first team All-AAC defenders, but they will be breaking in a new defensive coordinator. Additionally, the Knights are also using co-offensive coordinators for the first time under Malzahn.
Offensively, they are without their starting running back from a year ago, their second-leading receiver and three starters along the offensive line. The media didn’t choose any UCF players for the preseason All-Big 12 team.
Kobe Savage/Kansas State Athletics
Key players on offense
1.) John Rhys Plumlee (QB): He spent three seasons at Ole Miss, but after throwing for over 900 yards and four touchdowns and rushing for over 1,000 yards and 12 scores as a freshman, he didn’t have much of a role in Oxford as a sophomore and junior. He had plenty of success last season, though, in leading the Knights to nine wins. Plumlee threw for 2,586 yards while completing 63 percent of his passes for 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He had another 862 yards on the ground, which led the team, for an average of 5.4 yards per carry and 11 scores. The senior will be a challenge for the Kansas State defense right out of the gate.
2. Lokahi Pauole and Marcellus Marshall (OL): Pauole was a first team All-AAC selection last season. In Malzahn’s rushing attack, offensive line play is key and Pauole’s 35 starts for the Knights, combined with Marshall’s first team All-MAC honors at Kent State last year, give UCF a stout right side to run behind.
3.) RJ Harvey and Demarkus Bowman (RB): Harvey gained 796 yards on the ground and was part of a trio of Knights to nearly gain about 800 yards. He finished with an impressive 6.8 yards per carry and scored five times while also catching 22 balls for 215 yards. Bowman doesn’t have many stats in his two years, but he was a consensus five-star talent and spent a year at both Clemson and Florida before landing in Orlando with UCF.
4.) Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson (WR): The pair of former SEC receivers (Baker at Alabama and Hudson at Auburn) give Plumlee two large targets. Baker led UCF with 796 receiving yards on 14.2 yards per reception and five touchdowns. Hudson grabbed 39 balls for 641 yards for an impressive 16.4 yards per reception and a team-leading seven scores.
Key players on defense
1.) Tre’mon Morris-Brash (DE): He was a first team All-AAC pick in 2022. The hybrid edge rusher led the Knights with 13 tackles for loss and six sacks. He has 37 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks in his four seasons with UCF.
2.) Ricky Barber (DT): Like Morris-Brash, he was chosen as part of the All-AAC first team last year. Barber had 49 tackles and was second on the team with nine tackles for loss and three sacks. He has 21.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks in his career that spans a pair of seasons at both Western Kentucky and UCF. But they will have their hands full with an experienced K-State offensive line.
3.) Jason Johnson (LB): The third All-AAC first team pick on defense was Johnson. He finished with 126 tackles, including 67 of the solo variety, which more than doubled any of his UCF teammates. He played three seasons at Eastern Illinois and has tallied 361 tackles and over 200 of them have been solo over the course of his four-year career.
4.) Josh Celiscar (DE): Celiscar finished with 54 tackles, 8.5 of them for loss and three sacks in 2022. He has 20.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks during his three years at UCF.
5.) Jireh Wilson (S): The East Carolina transfer hopes to help shore up the Knights’ secondary. Wilson finished with 188 tackles, 99 of them solo, 16 tackles for loss, six sacks, 10 pass break-ups and four interceptions in 43 games with the Pirates.
Key players on special teams
1.) Colton Boomer (K): He made 14 of 15 field goals last year, including all 14 inside 49 yards to live up to his epic name for a kicker.
K-State wins if…
Kansas State wins if they can handle the UCF running game and are able to exploit a weak secondary.
The Knights get their inaugural conference game at one of the tougher places to play in the Big 12 and against the league’s defending champion. K-State should be ready to play for this one, not only for the novelty of the opponent, but it is the first conference contest and is played in Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
The Wildcats will be facing a strong UCF defensive front, but if they can block them well, they should have an easy time of revving up the offense. They’ll just need the defense to step up and contain a rushing attack that is led by the quarterback.
They can’t allow the Knights to control the game or the pace. It is the first of a stretch of fast-paced opponents that Kansas State will see. UCF’s experience and talent in the middle of their defense could also pose a challenge.
But the Wildcats should prevail at home.
Prediction: Kansas State 31, UCF 20
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