The Wolfpacker 3-2-1: Thoughts on ACC and realignment

Florida State made a lot of noise this week during a board of trustees meeting that threw the future of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) into even further question. Specifically, significant power breakers at FSU, including the university’s president, questioned the Noles’ future in the conference. TheWolfpacker.com examines the developments and how that may impact NC State.

3 Thoughts On Florida State’s Blunt Rhetoric

1. Florida State is making interesting, to say the least, moves, but might it also be the smart approach? The Seminoles’ tactics strongly suggests that FSU has yet to negotiate a landing spot with a new conference. That’s not how realignment decisions have panned out in the past. As far as we can tell, the public display of disapproval with the ACC is rather unprecedented.

Is Florida State being smart? That’s actually possible. FSU seems to be trying to make moves in a situation where other ACC schools are giving off an appearance like they are stuck in the current landscape due to the conference’s much-discussed grant of rights. Maybe Florida State grabs the attention of ESPN to renegotiate the media deal. Maybe FSU’s lengthy public marketing campaign highlighting the Noles’ strong television ratings is catching the attention of one of if not both the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and Big 10, the two financial powerhouses in the NCAA?

2. Or is Florida State acting foolishly out of desperation? There are valid reasons for FSU to be desperate. The looming revenue gap between the SEC/Big 10 and ACC is massive (estimated at $30 million annually). That carries greater significance considering the next battle on the horizon for student-athletes rights.

Already, those who fiercely advocated for name, image and likeness (NIL) have moved past the issue and it’s largely foreseen messy consequences by hailing NIL as an indisputable positive. The next, and perhaps ultimate, battle is unionization, collective bargaining and revenue sharing. Given the NCAA’s recent track record, it is easy to envision revenue sharing, at a minimum, happening in the near future.

How can any ACC team expect to compete when the SEC and Big 10 are sharing tens of millions more annually to its athletes? The answer is simple: the ACC cannot compete. That’s the true reason why the looming revenue disparity is indeed a desperate situation.

However, is Florida State turning towards desperate actions hoping that will prevail in the end? Without a true exit plan, that would carry significant risks.

3. Downplaying Florida State’s “bark” would be a mistake. The guess here is Florida State is somewhere in between desperate and smart, with combinations from both elements coming together to produce the board of trustees meeting that unfolded Wednesday.

Perhaps now is the time to be desperate. Just because such blunt rhetoric has not been tried before does not mean it will not work for Florida State. Plus, FSU power breakers are working themselves into good favor with the Seminoles’ fan base.

Truth is that there are a lot of universities that are or will be desperate to get onto the Big 10 or ACC table. FSU is one of the few that has the gravitas to grab a chair, if there is one available. Sitting back and watching others snag a seat first while falling dramatically behind in being able to be nationally competitive is not how someone in Florida State’s position, or anyone else, should operate.

However, there’s no denying the talk from Tallahassee is a gamble, and there is no guarantee of success. A bold departure from the ACC without a guaranteed landing spot and lengthy court battles that would likely preclude a coveted SEC or Big 10 invite until resolution of the cases would be FSU making a lot of assumptions, and there is an old saying about assuming anything. Just because you are kicking and screaming the loudest does not mean that you ultimately get what you want.

2 Thoughts On The ACC’s Options

1. The ACC only has two Hail Marys at this point. One is that Notre Dame joins the league. Why the Irish continues to insist on independence is puzzling, as anyone can see that short of ND saving the ACC the NCAA is headed to a landscape where the SEC and Big 10 are the two powers.

The Big 12 is on the path of securing its future as the “next best thing” in collegiate athletics after the SEC and Big 10. If the SEC and Big 10 get so large (20 teams?), then from a scheduling standpoint the opportunities for Notre Dame to be a viable independent football program seems significantly diminished. The smart approach for Notre Dame would be to give up on that stubbornness and join a league. There’s no guarantee that would be the ACC, but ESPN would make it very desirable for Notre Dame to do so, especially considering the top alternative would be joining the Big 10 with its massive Fox Sports television deal.

The other Hail Mary seems to involve ESPN itself. Bringing that out-of-date TV deal to modern rates won’t evaporate the revenue gap for the ACC, but that would position the conference as a clear No. 3 and in a position where the financial differences with the Big 10 and SEC may not be crippling. After losing some marquee college brands to Fox in the likes of USC, Michigan and Ohio State, ensuring that the likes of Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina, among others, stay within the ESPN media deals would seem to be smart.

2. Absent a Hail Mary, the ACC continues to be dead man walking. Florida State said the quiet part out loud. Who knows if that will prove to be smart, but the long-term outlook for the ACC is not changing.

And that outlook is not pretty. With revenue sharing a real possibility in the near-term future, the ACC would become the equivalent to a modern-day Group of Five league absent huge, seemingly unlikely moves.

1 Thought On NC State’s Future

1. Will NC State be tied to North Carolina’s future? In a WRAL.com story, two of the leading state legislators hinted that to should be the case, although with some minor hesitation:

“I really think Carolina and State ought to be in the same conference,” House Speaker Tim Moore said. “I really think they ought to do that. And I think you’d have a lot of resistance to seeing them split off in different conferences.”

“There is something about the rivalries that exist that i think would be damaged if we have the larger schools within North Carolina in different conferences,” Senate leader Phil Berger added. “I would not like to see that happen. Whether or not that’s something that would be appropriate for the legislature to step in or not, I have not really thought about it that way.”

Both the Big 10 and SEC are going to want North Carolina. The guess here is that NC State is attractive enough that those conferences, probably more so the SEC, would seriously consider that package deal. But that should not be assumed.

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