Predicting LSU’s stat leaders for 2023
The Tigers are days away from the beginning of the 2023 fall camp and now the season feels like it’s closing in. With just over a month until the opening kickoff for LSU vs. Florida State in Orlando, we can begin looking head to expectations for this season and pre-camp predictions.
Here’s a rundown of who I predict to lead the Tigers in key statistical categories in 2023.
All passing stats: Jayden Daniels
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Daniels is the day one starter heading into fall camp and there’s a confidence that he’s significantly better than he was in 2022. The Tigers have one of the best quarterback rooms in the country with Nussmeier backing him up, but barring extreme struggles or injury, Daniels will be the man for the job.
Whether LSU plays 13, 14, or 15 games, I expect Daniels to surpass 3,000 yards passing for the first time in his career. That, paired with 25 touchdowns and six or seven interceptions feels like a quality stat line through the air. Once this offense gets in the red zone, it should still lean on the run game for most of its touchdowns.
Rushing attempts and yards: Logan Diggs
I’m going to predict Diggs is the No. 1 back for LSU this year and ends with roughly 700-750 yards on the ground. Daniels will take a slight step back, not looking to run as much,dropping from 885 yards last year to 600-650 this season. The attempts is interesting, because Daniels’ scrambles will also count.
Both should be around 120 carries, but I’ll give the edge to Diggs. I understand the hesitancy to name Diggs RB1 at this moment when he’s hardly even been on campus, but in a running back room that lacks that true RB1, Diggs was an incredibly productive back at Notre Dame as a sophomore. If he fell behind Josh Williams, Noah Cain, and John Emery, I think the staff would be disappointed.
Rushing touchdowns: Jayden Daniels
This was between Daniels and Cain for me, just as it was last year when Daniels had 11 rushing touchdowns and Cain had 10. Cain is a goal line back they trust in short-yardage, but Daniels’ running ability is what made the Tigers elite in the red zone and I think that continues.
Daniels is also capable of popping runs from outside the 10 for touchdowns. I maintain that his total carries will be down, but once LSU is inside the 10, they’ll need his legs just as much as they did last year.
Receptions and receiving yards: Malik Nabers
ORLANDO, FL – JANUARY 02: LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) scores a touchdown after a reception during the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl between the LSU Tigers and the Purdue Boilermakers on January 02, 2023 at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Nabers is the obvious pick coming off of a season where he had 24 more receptions than anyone else and nearly double the yards of anyone else on the team. He had the second highest yards per reception as well, showing his ability after the catch, and is clearly the best receiver on this team..
The versatility in Nabers’ game has always been enticing. The technical ability with his route running and hands, paired with his incredible catch radius and high-level playmaking that he showed in spurts last year (remember that long touchdown vs. Purdue?), Nabers is truly a special talent and someone I expect to surpass 1,000 yards again with ease.
Receiving touchdowns: Mason Taylor
A lot of people think the next step in Taylor’s growth is catching 50 passes for 600 yards, but to me, it’s being more effective in the redzone to take pressure off the run game. It’s hard for a tight end to have a much better statistical season than Taylor had in 2022, but he only managed three touchdowns on the season as the only tight-end LSU used. There are new tight end options, but none as versatile as him and none that deserve to be on the field as much.
I have Taylor at seven touchdowns entering the year, which could edge out Nabers, Brian Thomas, and company because of what I mentioned earlier about this team still being a run-first team in the redzone.
Total tackles: Harold Perkins
(Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
Perkins was third in the team in tackles last year and he wasn’t even on the field for half of the snaps. He didn’t play against Florida State much at all, then when he did play it was strictly pass rushing scenarios. Now, with him more adept to playing on first and second down at the inside linebacker position, he’s going to light up the stat sheet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 100 tackles from Perkins this year paired with 15+ TFLs.
Omar Speights is the only other name I considered, but I don’t think he gets quite as many tackles.
Sacks: Harold Perkins
I debated for a long time between Perkins and Jones for this spot, but ultimately Perkins should lead this team in sacks if the coaches continue to let him attack. He’s an other-wordly pass rusher and playmaker and making him a stiff inside linebacker would be a mistake, but I don’t believe that’s what LSU is doing. The idea is to have him attack from different positions. We saw flashes of that in the spring game when he blitzed from the inside and had a one-on-one with a running back. That is the type of creativity LSU needs to have this season. As long as Perkins gets his opportunities, he’ll end the year with at least nine sacks, and that will lead the team.
Interceptions: Greg Brooks
Is this a boring answer? Yes. Is this also a copout because I can’t confidently say who the two starting corners are? Also yes… However, Brooks showed last year how dynamic he was at safety and at Nickel, flying around the field to break up passes and make key interceptions. His activity level is exactly what this defense needs in the back end and that very well could result in three interceptions, a number that should lead the team.
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