Fade these 5 likely popular SEC Media Days takes
Talking season is here. Or should I say hot take season? Down in Music City this week, hundreds of college football media members will hit Lower Broadway to preview the 2023 college football season. Takes will be generated at the Grand Hyatt in Nashville. We will even have a few of our own.
KSR’s content train is already rolling with a pair of podcasts that went live this week along with an assortment of preseason coverage both at main KSR and KSR+. The fun has just begun as we enter another college football season that will surely have many twists and turns.
There will be numerous radio shows providing nonstop coverage, SEC Network analysts providing coverage, and a plethora of journalists joining The Paul Finebaum Show who will give off some spicy takes (hello, SEC Mike). There will be some information overload. You can bet your bottom dollar on it.
At KSR+, we’re here to help you look past the noise. Let’s dive into the takes to look past before toe meets leather in less than two months.
Will Rogers and Mississippi State’s offense won’t miss the Air Raid
In December, the college football world lost an icon when Mike Leach tragically passed away at the age of 61. The former head coach at Texas Tech (2000-09), Washington State (2012-19), and Mississippi State (2020-22) won 158 games over his 23-year career, but his biggest impact might have been the way he changed how offensive football was played.
Leach and Hal Mumme brought the Air Raid pass-heavy offense to power conference football when the two were hired by Kentucky in 1997, and since then, it’s been a staple in our sport. Since that happened, Leach built one of the biggest coaching trees in college football (Lincoln Riley, Dana Holgorsen, Dave Aranda, Josh Heupel) and fundamentally changed how offenses operate. Some of the core concepts he brought to Kentucky (Y-cross, mesh, jailbreak screens out of empty) are used by just about everyone in college football today. Leach mastered the dink-and-dunk passing game and proved that a pass-heavy offense can play ball control and win football games without needing to go full out on tempo.
After a slow start, the offensive operation started to get revved up in Starkville. Things started to click for Will Rogers in 2021 when the Brandon (Miss.) High product threw for 15 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 390 yards per game in a 3-1 stretch that included a blowout home win over ranked Kentucky and a road win in Jordan-Hare Stadium where he outdueled Bo Nix. Rogers finished that season with an absurd completion rate (73.9%), ranked No. 4 nationally in passing yards (4,739), and tossed 36 touchdowns setting the table for a potential monster season in 2022.
Rogers took a step back statistically last fall (68% completion rate, 3,974 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 6.5 yards per attempt) but the offense put up 31.6 points per game and recorded helmet logo home wins over Auburn and Texas A&M. The Dogs dropped two games to Alabama and Georgia but upset Ole Miss on Black Friday and beat Illinois on New Year’s Day to secure a nine-win season. After throwing for 10,689 yards and 82 touchdowns through his first three seasons, new head coach Zach Arnett will be asking his true senior quarterback to master a different offense this fall.
Kevin Barbay was a long-time Jim McElwain assistant spending time at Florida and Central Michigan before being promoted to offensive coordinator in 2022. Barbay is now on his third play-calling gig in the last three seasons after spending time with CMU and Appalachian State. The new play-caller is installing a pistol wide zone offense that could get fairly run-heavy and require more vertical passes from Rogers with play-action fakes. That will be a change.
The senior quarterback has put some good vertical throws on tape in the past, but this is a different ballgame. Veteran Jo’quavious Marks is a candidate to be a surprise top tailback in the league. There will be growing pains and this offense will look disjointed at times. The current personnel on the roster was not recruited to run stretch zone or consistently connect on vertical shot throws.
Rogers will see a statistical dip and could struggle outside of the rhythm-based passing game with a ton of easy completions in Leach’s scheme. Expect a transition period in Starkville. Luckily, State has the conference’s easiest non-con slate, only has four road games, and avoids Georgia out of the East.
LSU will win the SEC West
LSU surprised many in Brian Kelly‘s first season when the Tigers stunned Alabama at home and finished 6-2 in conference play to return to the SEC Championship Game for the second time in four seasons. Many believe LSU is a true national title contender in 2023, and there is a solid chance that the Bayou Bengals will be the preseason pick to win the SEC West.
Don’t take the bait.
I’m not denying that there are some obvious signs that the Alabama dynasty could be on its last legs. The Crimson Tide have a huge QB dilemma, missed on multiple offensive coordinator targets in the offseason, are 1-7 against the spread as a road favorite the last two seasons, and have lost two games in each of the last three non-COVID seasons. However, this is still a talent accumulation game. The gap is still there between Bama and LSU.
Using the average star rating metric, Nick Saban‘s staff has signed five consecutive No. 1 classes and has a chance to be his best at Alabama. Tailback Justice Haynes, safety Caleb Downs, tackle Kadyn Proctor, and junior college wideout Malik Benson could all make a huge impact in Tuscaloosa this fall. There are some big shoes to fill on defense, but talent should take over. Bama gets LSU at home on Nov. 4 while road trips to USF (Sept. 16), Mississippi State (Sept. 30), Texas A&M (Oct. 7), Kentucky (Nov. 11), and Auburn (Nov. 25) are games the Tide should handle.
Down in the Bayou, LSU has only inked two top-five average start rating classes in the last five years and has had to depend on the transfer portal heavily. Nearly half of the starters on defense came from the portal. Despite a schedule that includes only four true road games, there will likely be some speed bumps. Last year, the Tigers dropped games to Florida State and Texas A&M in disappointing fashion.
Kelly has the Tigers in the best position to make a move in this division once Saban retires, but it looks like the best coach in college football history will outlast divisions in the SEC. LSU is a strong contender, but the West still belongs to Alabama.
Expect another Kirby Smart vs. Nick Saban battle in December.
QB1 hasn’t been decided at Georgia or Ole Miss
SEC Media Days also mean that ongoing quarterback battles are brought to light. We know that coaches who haven’t named a starter will be grilled on the subject by reporters throughout their appearance. Two coaches in particular should be prepared for all of the QB questions.
But no matter what Lane Kiffin or Kirby Smart tells us in Nashville, these battles have pretty much been decided.
At Georgia, Stetson Bennett IV has finally run out of college eligibility and will be reporting to training camp for the Los Angeles Rams later this month. A competition ran throughout the spring in Athens, but the next QB1 is a poorly kept secret. Carson Beck served as Bennett’s backup last season and played well in limited playing time (89 snaps, 87.0 PFF passing grade, 11.6 yards per attempt on 35 throws). Blue-chippers Gunner Stockton and Brock Vandagriff pushed Beck, but this job belongs to the 6-foot-4 pocket passer out of North Florida.
Down in Oxford, Kiffin surprisingly went fishing in the transfer portal again at quarterback. Walker Howard (LSU) and Spencer Sanders (Oklahoma State) both committed to Ole Miss and were on campus for spring practice. The latter is the biggest competition to former USC transfer Jaxson Dart.
Dart finally won a long QB competition in Week 3 last season, and the USC transfer would start for the Rebels in every power conference game last fall. The former top-100 recruit from Utah rushed for 699 non-sack rushing yards on a 50 percent success rate while posting a 45.5 percent passing success rate with 2,974 passing yards on 8.2 yards per attempt. However, Kiffin wasn’t thrilled with Dart’s development and went looking for some competition after Luke Altmyer entered the transfer portal and landed at Illinois.
Sanders (41 career starts, 9,553 passing yards, 2,175 non-sack rushing yards, 85 total touchdowns) played a lot of football in the SEC and can bring a similar run element to the Ole Miss offense. The super senior was brought in to compete for the starting job, and early indications were that Dart outperformed the new addition in spring camp.
Expect Dart to open the season as Kiffin’s QB1, but there could be a short leash.
Graham Mertz is not a good starting QB
With talking and preview season come power rankings. But it’s not just ranking teams. Coach rankings are growing in popularity, but QB power rankings are still king. Throughout the four-day marathon, there will be numerous thoughts and analysis given on all expected 14 starting quarterbacks in the SEC.
The expected starting quarterback at Florida will generate some thoughts. I’m here to tell you that Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz is not as bad as you think and will not be the worst quarterback in the SEC this season.
Back in December when we were taking a closer look at who Kentucky could target in the transfer portal, Mertz was a potential candidate. The tape showed a capable starting quarterback who could excel in the right scheme at his new school.
Scouting Report: A pro-style quarterback with some NFL tools, Graham Mertz flashed some spurts of high-level play in three years as Wisconsin’s starter. In a traditional offense that got under center a ton and played with a lot of heavy personnel, Mertz showed some good velocity on short-to-intermediate throws and excelled at creating completions on vertical concepts due to ball placement and accuracy. However, that accuracy was not always consistent on some of the easier throws in the Wisconsin scheme. There is a lack of foot quickness and speed that limits Mertz’s secondary playmaking when plays break down. Was a true game manager in the Big Ten that was never really asked to carry an offense.
At Florida, Mertz will be plugged into a run-heavy scheme where play-caller Billy Napier will ask the Big Ten transfer and former top-100 recruit to hit on some vertical throws, but Mertz will remain in a game manager mode. There are some skill talent concerns at wide receiver and tight end for the Gators entering this season, but it should be an upgrade on the outside from what Mertz had in Madison, and Napier appears to also be an upgrade as a play-caller.
Mertz likely won’t be a top-half QB in the SEC this season, but he won’t be at the bottom either. There is still potential there for the redshirt senior quarterback with a big arm.
Tennessee’s offense won’t skip a beat
In two seasons at Tennessee, former Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker threw for 6,080 yards (9.6 yards per attempt), 58 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. The Vols were 15-7 in games Hooker started becoming one of the top offenses in college football.
Many expect Tennessee to once again have a top-five offense without Hooker who was selected in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Detroit Lions. I’m here to tell everyone to pump the brakes.
Josh Heupel does run and call one of the most unique offenses in college football. His version of Art Briles’ veer-and-shoot attack puts a lot of stress on opponents. We’ve seen Dillon Gabriel (7,223 passing yards, 61 passing touchdowns in two seasons) and Drew Lock (7,363 passing yards, 67 passing touchdowns in two seasons) both put up monster numbers in this scheme. But neither came close to Hooker’s level of efficiency (68.8% completion rate) who was able to consistently hit the three-point shots that Heupel’s scheme creates with a heavy amount of vertical throws created by choice routes.
Joe Milton is entering year three in the scheme and played well in wins over Vanderbilt and Clemson (398 passing yards, 8.1 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns) but it was a clear step back from Hooker. We should expect QB play on Rocky Top to take a step back this season and that means the Vols could have some slippage.
After ranking No. 7 in points per drive (3.55) last season, odds are we see the Vols take a step back as Milton looks to man the QB1 job all season while five-star true freshman Nico Iamaleava waits for his opportunity that will come sooner rather than later.
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