O/NSO: 2023 USC Trojans Game-by-Game Predictions edition

The Obvious: With the start of USC football training camp just two weeks away, it’s that time of the year when the O/NSO releases our annual game-by-game predictions for the upcoming season, Lincoln Riley’s second season and probably All-America quarterback Caleb Williams final season, which optimistically leads to a Pac-12 championship and a CFP post-season invite.

The Not So Obvious: In Part 1 of our 2023 season prognostications, the O/NSO looks at the first half of the season, and once again we consult with our most loyal of fans: The Optimist, The Pessimist, and The Realist. Most would agree that the first half of the 2023 schedule looks to be a cakewalk with the second half of the second appearing to be murderer’s row.

So, in this week’s O/NSO, we take a look with our three prognosticators at the Trojan’s first six games on the schedule with the second half of the schedule to follow next Friday.

THE OBVIOUS GAME 1 – SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS

(Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Date: Aug. 26
Location: Los Angeles
Stadium: Memorial Coliseum (77,500)
Time and TV: 5:00 p.m. PT/ 8:00 p.m. ET/Pac-12 Networks
2022 SJS record: 7-5, 5-3 MWC
Head coach: Brent Brennan (7th season/27-42 HC overall)
OC: Kevin McGiven
DC: Derrick Odum
Returning starters: Off. 9, Def. 5, SPT. punter/placekicker
Playing surface: Bermuda grass
Game before USC: None
Game after USC: Oregon State (Sept.3)

THE NOT SO OBVIOUS SAN JOSE STATE GAME POINTS OF VIEW:

The optimist: First of all, it’s great to see our Trojans finally playing in the Coliseum and with so much excitement in the air. That was a long off-season. It sure seems like San Jose State likes to start its season by being punished by a Top 10 team. Isn’t that called masochism? One thing I know is that the Trojans will win in a romp, Caleb Williams will again look like he belongs in the NFL, and the defense will show marked improvement in physicality and in tackling.

The pessimist: I can’t argue the point about this being an exhibition game and the fans still have to pay for it. It will be a hot day in the Coliseum even with a 5 p.m. kickoff, and folks figured to be drained by doing some tailgating in the hot afternoon. It figures to be a miserable day in terms of heat and the sun. The real question is not the Trojans’ offense – you see I am not that negative – but will more people go for first-aid due to sunstroke compared to the number of points the San Jose St. defense gives up to Lincoln Riley’s offense? Are we going to learn anything about the 2023 Trojans in this game? Probably not.

The realist: Okay, it’s going to be hot. The Trojans’ offense will be hotter. The Trojans’ defense better be hotter. The outcome is not in doubt, but the performance of the defense will get scrutinized because it should. Not much to add except the SJS offense is perceived to be one of the best in the Mountain West Conference – led by senior QB in-conference transfer Chevan Cordeiro, an All-MWC honorable mention last season at Hawaii.

As for the Spartans’ defense, SJS lost its best two defenders from last season, but head coach Brent Brennan‘s team may be a Mountain West Conference dark horse if some of the defensive losses can be addressed. Last season, the Spartans did play in a bowl game, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl and lost to Eastern Michigan, 41-27.

Comment: Last season, the Spartans’ offense averaged 27.4 PPG, and the defense allowed 22.0 PPG. If history repeats itself in 2023, the Trojans will romp in the Coli.

THE O/NSO PREDICTION: USC 55, SAN JOSE STATE 17

**************************

THE OBVIOUS GAME 2 – NEVADA WOLF PACK

(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Date: Sept. 2
Location: Los Angeles
Stadium: Memorial Coliseum (77,500)
Time and TV: 3:30 p.m. PT/6:30 p.m. ET/Pac-12 Networks
2022 UNR record: 2-10, 0-8 MWC
Head coach: Ken Wilson (2nd season/2-10 HC overall)
OC: Derek Sage
DC: Mike Bethea/Kwame Agyeman
Returning starters: Off. 6, Def. 8, SPT. kicker/punter
Playing surface: Bermuda grass
Game before USC: None
Game after USC: Idaho (Sept. 9)

THE NOT SO OBVIOUS NEVADA GAME POINTS OF VIEW:

The optimist: Who could be worse than playing San Jose State in the season opener? Uh, try the University of Nevada at Reno Wolf Pack that won just two games last season while losing 10 games. I am excited to watch Miller Moss get more playing time in this one than he got last week against San Jose State. There should be a rule that when you play a team as bad as Nevada, fans should get in for free and pay to get out. Just kidding.

It’s just a question if the USC offense can hit 60 points against the alleged Wolf Pack defense. The Nevada offense is more anemic than iron-deprived patients. I might advise the wife not to bring the children to this game, so it doesn’t give them nightmares at the carnage the Trojans are going to administer against the city that houses the Bowling Hall of Fame.

The pessimist: My main gripe is that these types of games are absolutely no fun to watch. It’s like paying to see bad fraternity hazing. It’s disgusting. Now don’t get me wrong, I like seeing the younger players get playing time, and I know that true freshman receiver Zach Branch will become a legend in this game. He figures to break some sort of record either at receiver or returning punts. Does this game prove nothing other than who the hell decided on an early September game with a 3:30 p.m. PT kickoff time? I want to know who gives in first: USC fans stroking out from the heat or the Nevada team on both sides of the ball throwing in the towel before the end of the first quarter.

The realist: No question about it, if the opening last week against San Jose State was like playing a college JV team, then playing Nevada is like playing a bad high school team. The one thing that Lincoln Riley and his staff will learn, however, is which players on the team are devoted to playing each down like it’s their last and which players won’t play every down like it is their last. Better to find out now before a legitimate challenger appears in the second half of the schedule.

Comment: Take a long, good look at this game. You might not be seeing a team this bad in the Coliseum for quite some time. There should be plenty of USC highlights and big plays against a bad Wolf Pack squad. The only redeeming social value is next week the Trojans host a rebuilding Stanford team in the Pac-12 Conference opener, and that should start to get the actual season started. Enough with the tomato cans. It’s time to at least get semi-serious with a weak first-half schedule. Oh, before I forget, last season Nevada averaged 18.8 PPG on offense and allowed 30.9 PPG on defense. Need we say more?

THE O/NSO PREDICTION: USC 62, NEVADA 13

**************************

THE OBVIOUS GAME 3 – STANFORD CARDINAL

(Photo by Larry Placido/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Date: Sept. 9
Location: Los Angeles
Stadium: Memorial Coliseum (77,500)
Time and TV: 7:30 p.m. PT/10:30 p.m. ET/FOX
2022 SU record: 3-9, 1-8 Pac-12
Head coach: Troy Taylor (1st season/30-8 HC overall)
OC: Troy Taylor
DC: Bobby April lll
Returning starters: Off. 3, Def. 3, SPT. kicker
Playing surface: Bermuda grass
Game before USC: At Hawaii (Sept.1)
Game after USC: Sacramento State (Sept. 16)

THE NOT SO OBVIOUS STANFORD GAME POINTS OF VIEW:

The optimist: Hey-hey, ho-ho, our offense is going to really roll. Yes, it’s time for our match with our loveable private school friends from Palo Alto. Yes, it’s our annual Pac-12 opener against the Stanford Cardinal, and it will be the last time – at least for the near future – for the team whose nickname was once the Indians. By that I mean the last time we play Stanford in a Pac-12 game. Maybe someday in a non-conference game, but it doesn’t figure to be any time soon.

If Caleb and company attack the poor Stanford defense the way I think they will do, the Cardinal or whatever they call themselves these days will be in no hurry to see the Men of Troy anytime soon. Want to make a bet that Troy’s transfer running back MarShawn Lloyd doesn’t introduce himself in a big rushing spectacular? Yikes!!!

The pessimist: Look, we all know that the David Shaw-led Cardinal had run its course. The guy was a good coach who just couldn’t add and sustain talent to the Farm. Well, he’s long gone and has been replaced by first-year head coach Troy Taylor, a former quarterback at Cal, Stanford’s bitter Bay rival. Call it the odd couple, but Taylor had success at Sacramento State, so the Cardinal are giving him a shot.

Last season, Taylor’s Sac State team won the Big Sky Conference when as offensive coordinator of his own team, the Hornets averaged 42.9 PPG, which should get the attention of Trojans’ defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Let’s put it this way, if Taylor’s Stanford offense makes a statement against Grinch’s defense, all that off-season bravado of an improved USC defense will be on shaky ground.

The realist: Here’s a trivia question for your Stanford and USC friends: What is the name of Stanford’s 2023 quarterback? Time is up, it’s Ari Patu, a junior from Folsom, California. Now you can go to the bonus round: Who is the Stanford running back whose father is in the NFL Hall of Fame? Right you are, it’s E.J. Smith, son of the legendary Emmitt Smith. One Stanford offensive player that could give the Trojans’ defense some challenges is All-Pac-12 tight end Benjamin Yurosek (6-4, 242). We know in the past how the Trojans have had their issues with guarding tight ends. However, again, Caleb Williams will be unstoppable, and since this game will be a 7:30 p.m. PT game nationally on Fox Sports, no doubt Caleb will seize the opportunity to garner some Heisman Votes along the way.

Comment: Last season, Stanford averaged 21.3 PP and allowed 32.2 PPG. They figure to be better on offense, but their defense has a lot of questions, and that’s a bad thing when you are facing what may be as potent an offense as there is in the country.

THE O/NSO PREDICTION: USC 48, STANFORD 24

**************************

Schedule note: The Trojans draw the first of two seasonal byes after the Stanford game, so there will be no game on Saturday, Sept. 16.

**************************

THE OBVIOUS GAME 4 – At ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS

(Photo Credit: Jose Marin / MarinMedia Pool for USC Athletics)

Date: Sept. 23
Location: Tempe
Stadium: Sun Devil Stadium (53,599)
Time and TV: TBA
2022 ASU record: 3-9, 2-7 Pac-12
Head coach: Kenny Dillingham (1st season/0-0 HC overall)
OC: Beau Baldwin
DC: Brian Ward
Returning starters: Off. 9, Def. 7, SPT. punter/kicker
Playing surface: Bermuda grass
Game before USC: Fresno State (Sept. 16)
Game after USC: At Cal (Sept. 30)

THE NOT SO OBVIOUS ARIZONA STATE GAME POINTS OF VIEW:

The optimist: What is going on with ASU? Are they still on NCAA death watch? I mean, what former head coach Herm Edwards allegedly did was almost breathtaking if the charges are all true. Maybe it just seems like everybody was getting the hell of out of Tempe before the iron fist of the NCAA came pounding. Even the Sun Devils’ All-Conference punter, Eddie Czaplicki, transferred to USC. I see that no kickoff time has yet been announced, so maybe the Sun Devils are praying for a 3:00 p.m. kickoff time, which could melt stadium beams in late September.

The Sun Devils gave up 41 points the last time they faced the Trojans last season at the Coli, and the change in venue won’t make a damn bit of difference. The Trojans are rolling offensively, the Sun Devil scoreboard could light up like a pinball machine. One item of note for the USC defense. The ASU quarterback figures to be Drew Pyne, who the Trojans saw at the end of last season against Notre Dame, a game in which the Irish offense – playing against a poor USC defense – scored just 27 points. Besides, ASU has to redo its offensive line. Need I go on?

The pessimist: If you’re looking for a rout, you’ll probably get it, but ASU under former Oregon offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham probably is going to put on the field a better team than some are anticipating. Pyne won’t be intimidated by the Trojans’ defense, and Dillingham has drawn some real respect after his time as the Oregon OC. Whether that translates into keeping the Sun Devils in the game against the Trojans remains to be seen. There is no real reason the Trojans should fear an upset, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Dillingham finds some soft spots in the USC defense. This is a game that could show some progress in the 2023 USC defense compared to the 2022 defense.

The realist: In their first three games – all home games – the Sun Devils will face Southern Utah, Oklahoma State, and Fresno State. A best-case scenario is probably 2-1 heading into the USC game. Otherwise, it’s probably 1-2, and let’s not forget the game against the Trojans will be ASU’s first conference game, which technically means a clean conference slate. Last season, ASU scored 25 points against the Trojans in a 42-25 loss in Los Angeles. The Trojans will win big, but will it be as big as some are expecting?

Comment: Last season, ASU averaged 26.1 points on offense and allowed 31.4 points on defense. We’ll see how those numbers change against the Trojans with a new ASU coaching staff and retooled roster.

THE O/NSO PREDICTION: USC 45, ARIZONA STATE 23

**************************

THE OBVIOUS GAME 5 – AT COLORADO BUFFALOES

(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Date: Sept 30
Location: Boulder, Colorado
Stadium: Folsom Field (50,183)
Time and TV: TBA
2022 UC record: 1-11, 1-8 Pac-12
Head coach: Deion Sanders (1st season/27-6 HC overall)
OC: Sean Lewis
DC: Charles Kelly
Returning starters: Off. 9, Def. 8, SPT. punter/kicker
Playing surface: Grass
Game before USC: At Oregon (Sept. 23)
Game after USC: At ASU (Oct. 7)

THE NOT SO OBVIOUS COLORADO GAME POINTS OF VIEW:

The optimist: Oh dear, I am so scared to face Deion Sanders, Colorado’s first-year head coach and living NFL Hall of Fame legend…not. Folks, the guy can’t play 11 positions on the Buffs’ defense. Sanders has made more changes to the Colorado roster than Mick Jagger changes costumes at a Rolling Stones concert. Sure, he has done a complete makeover of his roster, but what does that mean? Some say he had the best portal transfers this side of Lincoln Riley. Here’s a little problem, one of his transfers was not Caleb Williams but Sanders’ son, Shedeur Sanders.

No doubt Folsom Field will be hysterical at kickoff because the game will start 0-0. The problem is that once the game begins, Colorado fans will be hysterical when Sanders’ defense can’t stop Caleb and his fleet receivers and elite running backs. Deion, you have a problem. The game will get the national hype because of USC, but the Buffaloes could be 1-4 by the time they play the Trojans. It figures that Deion and the Buffaloes will succumb at TCU, at Oregon, and probably Nebraska. There is no guarantee they can beat Colorado State at home, as well.

The pessimist: Dude, you’re really underestimating Deion and his ability to coach. He gets the game, and he knows what his team on defense needs to be able to do to slow down the Trojans’ offense. Granted he has one defensive starter back, but it means the new guys will buy into what Neon Deion is selling. Do I think his team can beat the Trojans? I don’t know if the Buffs could beat the Trojans with Miller Moss or freshman Malachi Nelson at quarterback.

What I do know is that Colorado will come to compete, and their fans will back them as long as they stay in the game quarter-by-quarter. I wouldn’t dismiss the damage that Deion’s son Shedeur could do to the Trojans’ defense since his son is so athletic. One of the Buffs transfers is corner Travis Hunter, who some believe was the best prep player in the country two seasons ago. Deion convinced him to come to Jackson State, and then he followed Sanders to Boulder.

The realist: Since Deion Sanders is a defensive mind by trade, it will be fascinating if not intriguing to see how he chooses to defend against the Trojans’ offense. Sanders faced many legends in the NFL, so we’ll see how he defends a collegiate legend and likely No. 1 overall NFL draft pick in Caleb Williams. All logic says that once the Trojans get rolling – and Caleb will feed off the Colorado crowd – is there any way that Colorado can stay close? If the Trojans’ defense is that improved up to this point, it is probably too much of a task for Colorado to hang with the cardinal and gold.

Comment: Last season, Colorado averaged 15.4 PPG on offense and allowed 44.5 PPG on defense. Even the most positive Buffs fan knows that these horrible numbers aren’t going to change overnight, and the 2023 USC Trojans know it. Maybe the thin air will challenge Riley’s team, but don’t bet the house or a Rocky Mountain cabin on it.

THE O/NSO PREDICTION: USC 44, COLORADO 20

**************************
THE OBVIOUS GAME 6: ARIZONA WILDCATS

(Photo by Leon Bennett/Getty Images)

Date: Oct. 7
Location: Los Angeles
Stadium: Memorial Coliseum (77,500)
Time and TV: TBA
2022 UA record: 5-7, 3-6 Pac-12
Head coach: Jedd Fisch (3rd season/17-19 HC overall)
OC: Brennan Carroll
DC: Johnny Nansen
Returning starters: Off. 7, Def. 9, SPT. kicker
Playing surface: Bermuda grass
Game before USC: Washington (Sept. 30)
Game after USC: At Washington State (Oct. 14)

THE NOT SO OBVIOUS ARIZONA GAME POINTS OF VIEW:

The optimist: So, our lads in cardinal and gold are just one game from finishing the first half of the season at 6-0. I know that Arizona is better, and that coach Jed Fisch has got something going down there in Tucson, but this game is in L.A., baby, and it doesn’t help when a trio of stars from your 2022 Wildcats team is playing against you, unless you’ve already forgotten standout receiver Dorian Singer, defensive lineman Kyon Barrs, and corner Christian Rolland-Wallace. Aren’t we all sick of hearing about what a miracle worker Jedd Fisch is? Yeah, he’s made some upgrades, no doubt about it, and last season the Wildcats gave the Trojans a fight in Tucson and fell 45-37. Here’s the problem: Dorian Singer who gave the Men of Troy such a problem last season as a Wildcat is probably going to do the same to you as Trojans but this time in the Coliseum. This ain’t Tucson, this is the big show, and your team will find this isn’t the same USC team you faced last season, so don’t go home crying you should have won.
The pessimist: Geez, you’re out of control. Some see the Arizona game or the game at Cal as the proverbial “trap game.” It’s not like the Wildcats can’t put points on the board. They’ve got a heck of a returning quarterback in Jayden de Laura, who is still just a junior. They also have an NFL future draft pick at wide receiver in sophomore Tetairoa McMillan, a once prized USC recruit. The Trojans’ defense knows what he can do. And as far as the Wildcats’ defense, perhaps you’ve forgotten that Oregon linebacker Justin Flowe is now a junior Wildcat. Flowe was once a very highly recruited Trojan prospect until the kid decided to sign with Oregon.

The realist: No doubt that Arizona will be gunning for an upset, and isn’t it ironic that the Wildcats’ offensive and defensive coordinators are former Trojans’ assistant coaches in OC Brennan Carroll and DC Johnny Nansen, respectively. Their roster is full of Southern California kids, and a few of them were recruited by USC. The question is do they have enough of them to stay with the Trojans for four quarters? One key question is what kind of shape will Arizona be in both physically and mentally having hosted Washington the week before in Tucson? It could be a fatigue factor coming to Los Angeles. If the Trojans jump ahead early, the lessons from last season in Tucson should be that Arizona will compete, and Riley’s team must keep the pedal to the metal.

It should also be noted that the Wildcats return both their placekicker and punter, which could be critical in staying close to the Trojans. Of all the games in the first half of the schedule, this one could be a tough one, especially with no bye week until the end of the season and the Trojans heading to Notre Dame the following week in what could be a battle of nationally ranked undefeated teams.

Comment: Last season, Arizona averaged 30.8 PPG on offense and allowed 36.5 PPG on defense. This will be USC’s last game against the weaker teams in its schedule, and did the Arizona game send a message to the next six opponents or at least the next two major challenges at Notre Dame and in the Coli against Utah. Arizona will not be a good time to take a mental timeout, or the Trojans could be in a real dogfight on this Saturday afternoon in L.A.

THE O/NSO PREDICTION: USC 51, ARIZONA 31

**************************

The Obvious: So, at the end of the first six games, the O/NSO sees the Trojans with a record of 6-0 overall and 4-0 in conference.

The Not So Obvious: Find out next Friday in Part- 2 of the seasonal predictions what the final six games will bring in what is a very challenging back half of the schedule.

The post O/NSO: 2023 USC Trojans Game-by-Game Predictions edition – Part 1 appeared first on On3.