3&Out: Detailing the big-picture impact of Nick Marsh’s commitment to Michigan State
River Rouge, Mich. – Three takes from Nick Marsh’s commitment to Michigan State on Friday, what it means, how “Mama_Tron” feels about it, and more.
1. THIS IS (KIND OF) BIG
Nick Marsh’s re-commitment to Michigan State rekindled momentum into the Spartan recruiting effort, due to his high ranking (No. 120 in the On3 Industry Rankings) and the in-state buzz it creates (more on that later).
I don’t want to dampen the enthusiasm, but we shouldn’t feel that just because Marsh is set to become the second four-star wide receiver on the roster in 2024 (joining Antonio Gates Jr.) that the others in Michigan State’s wide receiver pool aren’t talented, too. And perhaps more so.
If Marsh had committed to Penn State on Friday, I would have contended that two 2023 signees – Jaelen Smith and Aziah Johnson – might be just as good as Marsh, if not better. And now that Marsh has committed to Michigan State, I’m contending the same thing.
The rankings wouldn’t lead you to that conclusion. Johnson (6-2, 175, Richmond, Va.) is ranked No. 932 in the 2023 recruiting class, No. 24 in Virginia. Smith (6-2, 190, Houston) is ranked No. 1,058 in the nation and No. 184 in the state.
Michigan State chased Marsh from the time he was a standout freshman, gained a commitment from him in July of 2022, then watched him de-commit in March, and then reclaim him on Friday. That’s a quality acquisition for the Spartans.
But I contend that Michigan State’s short-term, 11th-hour recruitment of Johnson and Smith to fill areas of need at the wide receiver position last December could prove to be as fruitful as the four-star acquisitions of Marsh and Gates. If I’m right, give a helmet sticker to Spartan wide receivers coach Courtney Hawkins for talent evaluation. He made the discoveries. All that I did was watch the film and become astonished that they were ranked higher and more highly-recruited.
Sometimes – perhaps often times – it’s the underrated three-star recruits who out-shine the four-star prospects in college. You’ve heard that claim many times, if you’re a veteran college football fan. If you’re a star gazer, that notion triggers your kool-aid gag reflex. If you’re a star disbeliever, you enjoyed watching Mark Dantonio build a national power based largely on three-star recruits.
I believe the truth is somewhere in the middle. The good news is Marsh, Gates, Smith and Johnson give Michigan State plenty of strong, sturdy middle ground in the wide receiver talent pool.
It was that way in 2007 when Michigan State signed four-star WR Mark Dell from Farmington Hills Harrison and three-star WR B.J. Cunningham from Westerville, Ohio.
Dell became a good, quality college football player. Cunningham became a borderline great one, and set school records.
It was that way in 2008 when the Spartans signed four-star WR Fred Smith from Detroit Southeastern and three-star WR Keshawn Martin from Inkster, Mich/Westland John Glenn. Smith gained weight, moved to tight end, then fullback, and never panned out. Martin, who was a no-star recruit at the end of his senior year in high school, became an all-purpose superstar and NFL Draft pick.
It was that way in 2009, when Michigan State signed four-star WR Donald Spencer out of Ypsilanti, and three-star WR Bennie Fowler of Detroit Country Day. Spencer didn’t get much playing time through two seasons and transferred to a lower level. Fowler notched 93 career receptions at Michigan State and played six seasons in the NFL.
Four- and five-star recruits are much more likely to become NFL Draft picks than two- and three-star recruits. (footnote*).
I’m not contending that four-star status isn’t a good thing. I’m just saying a three-star recruit isn’t necessarily automatically inferior to a four-star prospect.
And if your staff proves to be excellent in the art of evaluation and player development of three-star recruits, and is able to pair them with some hard-earned four stars, then on-field success could start to eclipse a program’s aggregate team recruiting ranking.
Is Michigan State in that category? We’re still watching and learning. But I see plenty of value in Marsh, as well as some of the lesser-rated WR prospects that are set to become Spartans. Michigan State became richer in that area on Friday.
2. CREDIT TO TUCK AND HAWK
After Marsh de-committed from Michigan State in March, Spartan head coach Mel Tucker didn’t react with an onslaught of recruiting pressure. In fact, he went awhile without conversing with Marsh. Then Tucker and Michigan State came on strong again, late in the spring, and got it worked out.
When I asked Marsh on Friday if there was something that caused him to turn back toward Michigan State, he said: “Pretty much the conversation I had with Coach Tuck. After being committed, then de-committed, he didn’t want to apply pressure, so he kind of laid back some and just kept it real.
“We just had a genuine conversation and he got out some things on how he felt. It was just genuine. That’s how the conversation went.
“After the official visit, just being able to see everyone’s face again, and being able to match voices with faces, it was a big part. And just being able to bond and talk to them was a big part of it. I just feel a bit closer to them.”
What’s different about Marsh’s commitment to Michigan State this time, compared to 12 months ago? He’s more knowledgeable.
“That was one of the biggest reasons why I de-committed, just seeing what else was out there,” Marsh said. “Being able to see other schools and see their culture and just being able to know Michigan State was still home was a big thing.”
Michigan State was always the choice for Marsh’s mother, Yolanda Wilson. Tucker is the reason.
“Mel is the G.O.A.T,” said Wilson, who refers to herself on social media as ‘Mama_Tron.’ “Mel is one of those real people. He really loves his program and he really loves development. He and Coach Hawk, they are heavy on that. They are family people, family-oriented and we’re going to go crazy. I love it.”
3. SURVEYING THE IN-STATE TALLY
Tucker has never voiced an intention of “putting a fence around Michigan” and/or “keeping the best talent at home.”
That’s been a common mantra for past head coaches, including George Perles, Nick Saban, Bobby Williams and Dantonio, and probably some of their predecessors. Some have succeeded at times. Some have not.
Tucker has set out to sign his type of players, regardless of where they live. If that leads him to signing a large share of the top players in Michigan, so be it.
By my count, Michigan State has issued committable offers to seven in-state recruits for the class of 2024. With Marsh having committed to Michigan State, the Spartans have pledges from two of those seven (Mount Pleasant offensive lineman Andrew Dennis is the other).
Three of those seven have committed to Michigan (TE Brady Prieskorn of Rochester Adams, DB Jacob Oden of Harper Woods, and LB Jeremiah Beasley of Belleville).
One committed to Notre Dame (QB CJ Carr of Saline), and one committed to Penn State (LB Kari Jackson of West Bloomfield), although it’s unclear whether Michigan State went full-blast for Jackson.
Michigan State led for Beasley for much of his recruitment, and was regarded as a slight leader for Oden last winter.
Michigan State hasn’t necessarily set out to secure dominance in in-state recruiting, but had it within reach this year, despite a 5-7 season in 2022 and the Wolverines’ recent rise in national relevance.
If the Spartans had nabbed only one of its seven in-state offers in 2024, I don’t know how that couldn’t have been seen as a problematic trend. Adding just one commitment to the hopper on Friday, that of a four-star prospect in Marsh, gives Michigan State a 2-for-7 rate, which is by no means dominant, but only one notch short of Michigan’s 3-for-7.
In other words, no program dominated in-state recruiting. And it remains to be seen how many NFL-caliber players in the state of Michigan didn’t receive
scholarship offers from either in-state Big Ten school. There is always a small handful.
* (Footnote): Don’t confuse this with total figures. There are going to be more three-star recruits in the NFL than five-star recruits because there are only about 30 five-star recruits per year whereas there are more than 1,000 three-star recruits per year. But a single five-star recruit has a much, much higher chance of becoming an NFL Draft pick than a single three-star recruit.
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