2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections show movement before Selection Sunday
As many conference tournaments around college basketball wrap up, there are only a few automatic bids left up for grabs in the field of 68. However, the NCAA Tournament is not set yet, and there are multiple teams still fighting for their season with hopes of playing on the biggest stage next week and beyond.
The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.
After Tennessee knocks off Auburn and Wisconsin takes down Michigan State, there is plenty left to play for in the top seed lines. Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Bracketology
All projections are based on data through 3:30 pm ET on Mar. 15
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
Last four byes: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Utah State
Last four in: West Virginia, SDSU, Boise State, North Carolina
First four out: Texas, Xavier, Indiana, UC Irvine
First Four (Dayton)
16 AMERICAN (Patriot) vs. 16 Jackson State (SWAC)
16 ST. FRANCIS PA (NEC) vs. 16 Iona (MAAC)
11 West Virginia vs. 11 SDSU
12 Boise State vs. 12 North Carolina
South (Atlanta)
Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 AMERICAN/Jackson State
8 Memphis (AAC) vs. 9 New Mexico
Seattle
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Purdue vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Denver
6 Missouri vs. 11 UC San Diego (Big West)
3 Arizona vs. 14 Utah Valley (MAC)
Cleveland
7 UCLA vs. 10 Oklahoma
2 Tennessee vs. 15 BRYANT (AEC)
1-seed Auburn
Bruce Pearl (Photo by USA Today)
Even after back-to-back losses to close the regular season, Auburn has wrapped thing up as the No. 1 overall seed with a win in the SEC Tournament. The gap between their resume and the field is so large that getting off the losing streak is all it took to ease the minds before looking to add a conference title.
2-seed Tennessee
(Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images) Tennessee basketball coach Rick Barnes talks to Darlinstone Dubar (8) during the NCAA college basketball game againstKentucky on Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025, in Knoxville, Tenn.
Tennessee has made its case as a viable candidate for the final 1-seed spot, but will still likely need a win in the SEC Tournament championship to secure the title with Alabama and Florida on the other side of the bracket ready to improve a rival resume later in the day.
West (San Francisco)
Raleigh
1 Florida vs. 16 NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
8 UConn vs. 9 Baylor
Seattle
5 BYU vs. 12 DRAKE (MVC)
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 HIGH POINT (Big South)
Milwaukee
6 GONZAGA (WCC) vs. 11 West Virginia/SDSU
3 Kentucky vs. 14 WOFFORD (SoCon)
Wichita
7 Illinois vs. 10 Arkansas
2 Texas Tech vs. 15 MONTANA (Big Sky)
1-seed Florida
Todd Golden, Florida – © Randy Sartin-Imagn Images
Florida holds the inside track for the final 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but cannot rest easy yet as the resume sits close enough to Alabama and Tennessee that the deepest run in the SEC Tournament could easily push that team above the others.
2-seed Texas Tech
Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
Texas Tech jumps Kentucky in line for the final 2-seed spot and promises to stick there through Selection Sunday as both teams fall on the same night during conference tournaments. The only other team left with enough time to challenge is St. John’s in the Big East.
East (Newark)
Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 ST. FRANCIS PA/Iona
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Creighton
Denver
5 Oregon vs. 12 Boise State/North Carolina
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 LIPSCOMB (ASUN)
Providence
6 Michigan vs. 11 Vanderbilt
3 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 14 UNC WILMINGTON (CAA)
Cleveland
7 Kansas vs. 10 VCU
2 Michigan State vs. 15 ROBERT MORRIS (Horizon)
1-seed Duke
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Duke will now have the opportunity to make its case as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament following the loss by Auburn. While it is unclear if another win would do enough, the conversation would grow louder. The Blue Devils are now playing without Cooper Flagg in the ACC Tournament, limiting any potential move down with a loss.
2-seed Michigan State
State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts during the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Williams Arena. Photo by Matt Krohn | USA Today Network
Michigan State sits safely on the 2-seed line, likely to remain in their position regardless of the outcome of the remaining championship weekend results. The Spartans see a gap in both directions, a rarity this high up in the projected NCAA Tournament field.
Midwest (Indianapolis)
Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 SIUE (OVC)
8 Marquette vs. 9 Georgia
Providence
5 Clemson vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)
4 Maryland vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Milwaukee
6 Louisville vs. 11 Colorado State (MWC)
3 Iowa State vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
Lexington
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Utah State
2 Alabama vs. 15 OMAHA (Summit)
1-seed Houston
Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars landed the No. 11 recruiting class after the early signing period (photo credit – Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)
Houston sits firmly on the 1-seed line entering championship weekend, with little to no threat of falling onto the 2-seed line given the need for teams below them to progress through the same bracket to improve their resumes.
2-seed Alabama
Alabama coach Nate Oats (Will McLelland / Imagn Images)
Alabama is firmly in the mix of SEC teams looking to take over the final 1-seed spot in the field, with a chance to prove themselves by making the deepest run of the trio through the SEC Tournament given how close the resumes sit.
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