2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections as conference tournaments change outlook
As many conference tournaments around college basketball begin, a number of automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament are secured with more to come. As those teams finalize the position of the bubble, it provides a clear picture of what those biting their nails must accomplish to land on the right side.
The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.
After Iowa State’s loss to BYU in the Big 12 Tournament shakes up the top seed lines, there is plenty to look for in the projected field. Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Bracketology
Bracket will be updated after each round of games.
All projections are based on data through 3:30 pm ET on Mar. 13.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
Last four byes: SDSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma
Last four in: West Virginia, Xavier, Indiana, North Carolina
First four out: Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Colorado State
First Four (Dayton)
16 SIUE (OVC) vs. 16 ST. FRANCIS PA (NEC)
16 AMERICAN (Patriot) vs. 16 Jackson State (SWAC)
11 Ohio State vs. 11 SDSU
11 Texas vs. 11 Xavier
South (Atlanta)
Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 AMERICAN/Jackson State
8 Memphis (AAC) vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Seattle
5 Illinois vs. 12 DRAKE (MVC)
4 Clemson vs. 13 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Milwaukee
6 UCLA vs. 11 Vanderbilt
3 Texas A&M vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Cleveland
7 Kansas vs. 10 VCU (A10)
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)
1-seed Auburn
Bruce Pearl (Photo by USA Today)
Even after back-to-back losses to close the regular season, Auburn can wrap thing up as the No. 1 overall seed with a win in the SEC Tournament. The gap between their resume and the field is so large that getting off the losing streak is all it should take to ease the minds of the selection committee.
2-seed Tennessee
(Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images) Tennessee basketball coach Rick Barnes talks to Darlinstone Dubar (8) during the NCAA college basketball game againstKentucky on Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025, in Knoxville, Tenn.
Tennessee has plenty reason to show out in the SEC Tournament, with a potential return to the 1-seed line in play if they can make a deep run — particularly a deeper run than the other contenders in the conference.
West (San Francisco)
Raleigh
1 Florida vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 UConn vs. 9 Baylor
Denver
5 Arizona vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 HIGH POINT (Big South)
Milwaukee
6 Louisville vs. 11 West Virginia/Indiana
3 Kentucky vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
Wichita
7 GONZAGA (WCC) vs. 10 Georgia
2 Texas Tech vs. 15 MONTANA (Big Sky)
1-seed Florida
Todd Golden, Florida – © Randy Sartin-Imagn Images
Florida holds the inside track for the final 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but cannot rest easy yet as the resume sits close enough to Alabama and Tennessee that the deepest run in the SEC Tournament could easily push that team above the others.
2-seed Texas Tech
Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
Texas Tech jumps Kentucky in line for the final 2-seed spot before the start of each team’s conference tournament run. While the Wildcats still have a chance here, the Red Raiders take over the advantage based on the notes taken from a selection committee teleconference on Wednesday morning. Whichever of the two makes a deeper run in their conference tournament likely gets the spot.
East (Newark)
Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Quinnipiac
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Creighton
Providence
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 Xavier/North Carolina
4 Maryland vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Providence
6 Michigan vs. 11 Oklahoma
3 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 14 UNC WILMINGTON (CAA)
Lexington
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Utah State
2 Alabama vs. 15 OMAHA (Summit)
1-seed Duke
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Duke has a slim chance to take over the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament this season, but likely enters as the second team in the bracket behind Auburn. Regardless, a run to the ACC championship would give the selection committee plenty to think about.
2-seed Alabama
Alabama coach Nate Oats (Will McLelland / Imagn Images)
Alabama is firmly in the mix of SEC teams looking to take over the final 1-seed spot in the field, with a chance to prove themselves by making the deepest run of the trio through the SEC Tournament given how close the resumes sit.
Midwest (Indianapolis)
Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 SIUE/ST. FRANCIS PA
8 Marquette vs. 9 Arkansas
Seattle
5 BYU vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Purdue vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Milwaukee
6 Oregon vs. 11 UC San Diego (Big West)
3 Texas A&M vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Cleveland
7 Missouri vs. 10 SDSU
2 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15 ROBERT MORRIS (Horizon)
1-seed Houston
Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars landed the No. 11 recruiting class after the early signing period (photo credit – Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)
Houston sits firmly on the 1-seed line entering conference tournament week, with little to no threat of falling onto the 2-seed line given the need for teams below them to progress through the same bracket to improve their resumes.
2-seed Michigan State
State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts during the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Williams Arena. Photo by Matt Krohn | USA Today Network
Michigan State sits safely on the 2-seed line, likely to remain in their position regardless of the outcome during this week’s Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans see a gap in both directions, a rarity this high up in the projected NCAA Tournament field.
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