2023 Vegas Odds & Best Big 12 Title Bets
Courtesy of BetRivers
Big 12 Conference Winner
Texas +160
Oklahoma +300
Kansas State +750
TCU +750
Texas Tech +900
Baylor +1700
Oklahoma State +2200
UCF +3500
BYU +4000
Cincinnati +4000
Iowa State +5000
Kansas +6000
West Virginia +7000
Houston +8000
**
Texas is the overwhelming favorite. If you think the analysts at Inside Texas have been irresponsibly guzzling the Kool-Aid, Vegas is imbibing as well. Yes, Texas is a public betting team and that does create noise around the signal, but even after you adjust for that the Horns are the clear preseason anointed. The drop off from Texas to the next betting tiers is precipitous.
The 2nd and 3rd best odds belong to Oklahoma and TCU. Enticing brand familiar mirages to be avoided. Oklahoma has a wonderful schedule set up and this favors them having a decent shot at making the title game, but they don’t match up well with their most likely opponent: the Texas Longhorns. They’re also a Dillon Gabriel injury away from the Sooner Schooner upending. They’d be more interesting at +400.
TCU is an enticing choice for the midwit bettor who knows just enough football to be dangerous to themselves and others. That betting slip will be flying high in early October though. Enjoy it.
The best value propositions after Texas are Kansas State +750 and Texas Tech +900. Those are profitable odds for the two teams I currently see as the league’s next best after Texas as of May 1, 2023, Year of Our Lord. We’ll see what the offseason and Fall camp bring.
Note: KSU is @Tech, @Texas.
Kansas is a fun dark horse. Betting $1 will win you $60 if they do the impossible. They’re going to have to outscore everyone, finish 6-3 in league play, win tie breakers, then likely upset Texas in the title game. An epic achievement that would threaten my sanity and all of the furniture in my living room.
UCF could be a fun dark horse in the Kansas vein, but they’re @Oklahoma, @Texas Tech, @Kansas and their home field advantage isn’t exactly Tuscaloosa.
Baylor isn’t a terrible option at +1700. One can see the path, narrow and dimly lit as it is. QB Blake Shapen would need to be Big 12 OPOY. Which is as likely as someone like Max Duggan winning it. Hey, wait…
I cannot fathom where the other contenders are real possibilities on a risk-adjusted basis, but a cold-blooded statistical regression to the mean bet might allow a couple of ducats on Iowa State.
The rest of the field isn’t happening unless BYU has 5 All-Americans coming back from a mission in Iceland where they’ve just been lifting heavy stones all day wearing short sleeve shirts and ties.
Who do you like and what have you got?
How would you structure the most intelligent hedge for your pro-Texas bet?
Why does listing out all of the teams in the Big 12 minus Texas and Oklahoma make me chuckle so much?
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