2023 Hype Bowl: Is Texas or Florida State more likely to crash the College Football Playoff?
In 100 days, college football will officially return. Rejoice!
But who are we kidding? Just because there have been no games since January, college football has become a 365-day sport. We’ve been discussing the 2023 season since Georgia blitzed TCU in the National Championship. We’ve previewed the best positional units in the country. Outlined our favorite coaches, and power ranked each conference.
And with the latest transfer portal coup by Florida State on Wednesday — FSU landed Michigan State standout receiver Keon Coleman — it’s time to officially settle college football’s 2023 Hype-Off Bowl.
Texas is back! vs. The Year of the Noles.
Which team — Texas or Florida State — is more likely to crash the College Football Playoff this fall after offseasons overflowing with optimism?
Both programs enter the summer with as much buzz as any team not named Georgia or Michigan. Both the Longhorns and the Seminoles are favored to win their conferences, potentially ending separate streaks that have lasted far too long (14 years for UT, nine years for FSU). Both programs play SEC powerhouses early in the 2023 season. Both programs return 16 starters, have darkhorse Heisman Trophy contenders at quarterback and added key pieces from the transfer portal.
Texas doesn’t have the best roster in America, but the Longhorns are loaded after swiping Georgia wideout AD Mitchell and Arkansas safety Jalen Catalan to fill the few holes they had in their starting-22. All five starting offensive linemen are back, plus star playmakers on both sides of the football like wideout Xavier Worthy, tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders and linebacker Jaylan Ford.
And lest we forget, Quinn Ewers was considered a transcendent quarterback talent just two years ago.
Meanwhile, Coleman was just the latest transfer portal home run for Mike Norvell, who has supplemented FSU’s roster with impact transfers from South Carolina, Auburn, Virginia, Colorado, Penn State and Western Michigan.
The Seminoles ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s returning production, with quarterback Jordan Travis and standout pass rusher Jared Verse among the 87% of production back in 2023.
As for other preseason metrics, ESPN’s FPI loves Texas, slotting the Longhorns at No. 5 in the country, with a 54.4% chance to win the Big 12 and a whopping 34% — which is actually 4th-best nationally — to make the CFP.
Florida State is ranked 14th in FPI, with a 17% chance to win the ACC — considerably lower than Clemson’s 44.5% chance to win the league again. The Seminoles’ playoff odds are a meager 4.4%, too.
The computers have always loved Texas, even when the Longhorns were coughing up second-half leads a year ago, so those numbers are of note but not the end-all in the debate.
So which program is likely to live up to hype this fall — perhaps even exceeding expectations — and make the College Football Playoff? Which team can truly say it’s, “BACK!” come the end of the fall?
Chop on. I’m rolling with the ‘Noles.
WHY I HAVE FSU OVER TEXAS AS THE LIKELIER PLAYOFF PARTY CRASHER IN 2023
Maybe Texas doesn’t Texas this year, and actually avoids stepping on the rake and suffering debilitating self-inflicted losses. But history suggests a Steve Sarkisian-coached team is going to lose close games — and in what projects to be muddled Big 12, there could be plenty of gotcha games on the schedule.
Even if the Longhorns didn’t have a propensity to lose one-score games (4-10 in one-score games the last two seasons), they have a more difficult schedule this fall, with an early road trip at Alabama, and another seven projected bowl teams on the slate.
Florida State, which was 4-2 in one-score games in 2022, plays a neutral site game against LSU in Orlando, and while it must go on the road at Clemson, the rest of its schedule is cake in a down ACC (79th nationally, per Phil Steele) — especially when you add in the fact that rival Florida is expected to be so-so to bad in 2023, too.
Both teams have obvious areas for improvement defensively. Texas’ defense was solid last season, but the Longhorns were poor at forcing takeaways (14 total, second-fewest in the Big 12). FSU was really good defending the pass, but its rush defense left a lot to be desired.
As high as I am on Texas’ offensive potential, I think FSU’s latest transfer portal addition gives the Seminoles a legitimate chance to field a Top 5 offense in the country this year.
Last season, FSU led the ACC in scoring (36.1 points per game), yards per play (6.96), rushing offense (214 yards per game), rushing touchdowns (33), third downs (51%) and passing yards per attempt (8.9) — all numbers better than Texas.
Travis has made a leap every single season, and it would be no shocker if he threw for close to 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2023.
In 2022, FSU’s biggest bugaboo offensively was a lack of OL depth and too many drops from receivers. The OL has been significantly bolstered with multiple transfers and four starters back, and the pass-catching options — especially when you add in two talented tight end transfers — are infinitely better, too.
Coleman, a No. 1 receiver, joins Johnny Wilson, Kentron Poitier and a host of blue-chip freshmen to give FSU an explosive receiving core. Texas might have the best receiver room in America not residing in Columbus, Ohio, but thus far, Travis has proven better at getting his playmakers the football compared to Ewers.
The one wild card with FSU is QB depth, though. The ‘Noles are in big trouble if Travis is sidelined for any significant period of time, whereas Texas has Maalik Murphy and Arch Manning behind Ewers.
When it comes to coaching, I’m betting on Mike Norvell over Steve Sarkisian. I’ve repeatedly mentioned the “hasn’t won 10 games narrative” over and over because it’s pertinent. Whether at USC or Texas, Sarkisian has done less with more. Norvell certainly had his struggles out of the gate at FSU, but he’s methodically rebuilt that program from the studs, winning 10 games for the third time in his career last season. He also has a keen eye for coaching talent, forming an excellent staff during his days at Memphis (Dan Lanning, Kenny Dillingham, Ryan Silverfield) and building a strong set of assistants as FSU, led by future head coach Alex Atkins.
So in the 2023 Hype-Off Bowl, give me Florida State over Texas. If it’s going to be a wild year, it might as well be The Year of the Noles.
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