2023 Big 12 NFL Draft Implications
The Big 12 had 30 players taken in the 2023 NFL Draft. Six of them went in the 1st round, reversing the Round 1 shutout in 2022. The league was also up 5 total draft picks from last year, but still finished 4th of the power conferences in total picks and 3rd on a per capita basis.
The SEC and Big Ten lapped the competition and the SEC completed its 17th consecutive year with the most drafted talent.
How did individual Big 12 schools fare? And what it might portend for next year?
The Top Tier:
TCU — 8 Oklahoma — 5 Texas — 5 Kansas State — 4
TCU had the most athletes drafted in school history since the NFL went to the 7 round draft format, finishing 4th in the country among all schools. They lost 5 offensive stars and their 3 best defensive players. They didn’t just swamp the late rounds of the draft either. The Frogs had five players selected in the first four rounds. I detailed why TCU will be taking a step back in 2023 (after an early season mirage) and at this point, you either buy the analysis or you don’t. The Frogs just lost 26.7% of the total draftable talent in the entire league. The idea that they shrug this off and reload with a Top 15 national finish is amusing to me.
Note that when Baylor lost six players to the NFL draft in 2022, several football writers still picked them to win the league. They finished 4-5 in conference play. I have many theories on this, but one of them is that some people covering football don’t know anything about football. Teams are made up of players and coaches, not innate winnerness and recency bias.
Speaking of losing innate winnerness with different coaches and players, Oklahoma may have surprised some folks with 5 draftees given their 6-7 record, but their main problem was poor scheme fit paired with glaring weaknesses at other positions. Losing their two starting tackles in Rounds 1 and 3 as well as reliable running back Eric Gray, multi tool Brayden Willis and their best deep threat in Marvin Mims will force a change in offensive play style. Right now, Gray looks the most replaceable.
Texas had five athletes drafted, a nice rebound from an embarrassing grand total of 0 in 2022. Bijan and Roschon will be missed but the other losses have obvious replacements.
Kansas State loses their best players on defense and a dynamic playmaker on offense, but the Wildcat infrastructure on offense is solid (they return 5 starting OL, 4 of them RS seniors). Last year’s #16 ranked defense is guaranteed to take a step back. Perhaps a major one.
The Rest:
Iowa State — 3 Oklahoma State – 2Baylor — 1 West Virginia — 1 Texas Tech — 1 Kansas – 0
Poor Iowa State earned the honor of being the best 4-8 team in college football last year. Losing six games by a score or less will leave a mark. Veteran stalwarts Xavier Hutchinson, Will McDonald and Anthony Johnson are gone, but their record can’t get worse and they do return a lot of starters.
Oklahoma State loses a pair of defensive pieces (Lacy, Taylor) from an already below average unit.
West Virginia lost the last Stills brother and Bryce Ford Wheaton was a surprising UDFA. Dead program walking.
Texas Tech lost their defensive headliner, but the core of the team is back.
Baylor put Siaki Ika in the league.
Kansas returns 17 starters and everyone good is back.
**
The Big 12’s newest additions had ten picks between four teams:
Houston – 4
BYU- 3
Cincinatti – 3
UCF -0
Houston was an underachiever last year and losing the fantastic Tank Dell and a decent college QB won’t reverse that.
BYU lost 3 offensive players, including QB Jaren Hall.
Cincinnati lost all of their best pass catchers – 2 speedy wide receivers and a tight end.
UCF’s best players are back, but they lack depth.
Looking ahead to 2024, the Big 12’s draft profile looks poor and will be getting worse.
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